Ecological Risk Estimation

This paper describes the development, application, and analysis of a methodology for forecasting probable effects of toxic chemicals on the production dynamics of a generalized aquatic ecosystem. It explains, in detail, how methods are derived for extrapolating the results of toxicity tests performed with laboratory populations, and it estimates the effects of toxins on corresponding populations in natural lakes and rivers. The methodology represents an innovative approach for using the vast amount of routinely collected toxicology data to forecast toxic effects.