A global climatic risk assessment of pitch canker disease.

Pitch canker is a devastating disease of Pinus spp. and Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco. The pathogen responsible for this disease, Fusarium circinatum Nirenberg & O'Donnell, has spread to many countries within the last three decades. The susceptibility of the widely planted commercial species Pinus radiata D.Don to this pathogen has been of concern to pine forest industries worldwide. Using the process-based distribution program CLIMEX, the global risk of pitch canker establishment was predicted based on a number of climatic variables. The predicted risk of pitch canker establishment by CLIMEX fit well with regions known to have the disease, such as the southeastern United States and Spain. Conversely, the model predicted that the climate in California was not optimal for pitch canker, which fits with the observed lower frequency of natural infections and the strong association with insects in this region. Likewise, Chile, which is known to have F. circinatum in the nurseries but not in the plantati...

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