A model of social influence on body mass index

In this paper, we develop an agent‐based model of social influence on body weight. The model's assumptions are grounded in theory and evidence from physiology, social psychology, and behavioral science, and its outcomes are tested against longitudinal data from American youth. We discuss the implementation of the model, the insights it generates, and its implications for public health policy. By explicating a well‐grounded dynamic mechanism, our analysis helps clarify important dependencies for both efforts to leverage social influence for obesity intervention and efforts to interpret clustering of BMI in networks.

[1]  A. Treisman,et al.  Representation of statistical properties , 2003, Vision Research.

[2]  S. Kelder,et al.  Observable Weight Distributions and Children's Individual Weight Assessment , 2010, Obesity.

[3]  Damon Centola,et al.  The Spread of Behavior in an Online Social Network Experiment , 2010, Science.

[4]  Laura M. Koehly,et al.  Adolescent Obesity and Social Networks , 2009, Preventing chronic disease.

[5]  S. Değirmencioğlu,et al.  The structure of adolescent peer networks , 1995 .

[6]  M. McPherson,et al.  Birds of a Feather: Homophily in Social Networks , 2001 .

[7]  Ross A. Hammond,et al.  Exploring Price-Independent Mechanisms in the Obesity Epidemic , 2007 .

[8]  R. Axelrod.  Agent-based Modeling as a Bridge Between Disciplines , 2006 .

[9]  Ross A. Hammond.  Complex Systems Modeling for Obesity Research , 2009, Preventing chronic disease.

[10]  M. A. Thompson,et al.  Development and validation of a new body-image assessment scale. , 1995, Journal of personality assessment.

[11]  J. Griffith,et al.  Comparison of the Atkins, Ornish, Weight Watchers, and Zone diets for weight loss and heart disease risk reduction: a randomized trial. , 2005, JAMA.

[12]  R. Wing,et al.  Social Influences Are Associated With BMI and Weight Loss Intentions in Young Adults , 2011, Obesity.

[13]  B. Knäuper,et al.  Self-set dieting rules: Adherence and prediction of weight loss success , 2005, Appetite.

[14]  J. O'Loughlin,et al.  Do you see what I see? Weight status misperception and exposure to obesity among children and adolescents , 2008, International Journal of Obesity.

[15]  E. Ding,et al.  Does perception equal reality? Weight misperception in relation to weight-related attitudes and behaviors among overweight and obese US adults , 2011, The international journal of behavioral nutrition and physical activity.

[16]  Mary A. Burke,et al.  From “Overweight” to “About Right”: Evidence of a Generational Shift in Body Weight Norms , 2010, Obesity.

[17]  Mayuko Nakamaru,et al.  Spread of two linked social norms on complex interaction networks. , 2004, Journal of theoretical biology.

[18]  Jay S. Kaufman,et al.  An Actor-Based Model of Social Network Influence on Adolescent Body Size, Screen Time, and Playing Sports , 2012, PloS one.

[19]  J. Lambert.  Numerical Methods for Ordinary Differential Equations , 1991 .

[20]  Katherine M Flegal,et al.  Prevalence of obesity and trends in the distribution of body mass index among US adults, 1999-2010. , 2012, JAMA.

[21]  Kevin D Hall,et al.  Predicting metabolic adaptation, body weight change, and energy intake in humans. , 2010, American journal of physiology. Endocrinology and metabolism.

[22]  R. Cialdini,et al.  Social influence: Social norms, conformity and compliance. , 1998 .

[23]  M. Macy,et al.  The Emperor’s Dilemma: A Computational Model of Self‐Enforcing Norms1 , 2005, American Journal of Sociology.

[24]  Christian Steglich,et al.  Smoking-based selection and influence in gender-segregated friendship networks: a social network analysis of adolescent smoking. , 2010, Addiction.

[25]  A. Treisman,et al.  Statistical processing: computing the average size in perceptual groups , 2005, Vision Research.

[26]  B. Swinburn,et al.  The global obesity pandemic: shaped by global drivers and local environments , 2011, The Lancet.

[27]  D. Fabbri,et al.  Decomposing cross-country differences in levels of obesity and overweight: does the social environment matter? , 2010, Social science & medicine.

[28]  J. Butcher.  Numerical Methods for Ordinary Differential Equations: Butcher/Numerical Methods , 2005 .

[29]  K. Flegal,et al.  Prevalence of obesity and trends in body mass index among US children and adolescents, 1999-2010. , 2012, JAMA.

[30]  E. Finkelstein,et al.  Annual medical spending attributable to obesity: payer-and service-specific estimates. , 2009, Health affairs.

[31]  Raymond C Browning,et al.  Exploiting Social Networks to Mitigate the Obesity Epidemic , 2009, Obesity.

[32]  N. Christakis,et al.  The Spread of Obesity in a Large Social Network Over 32 Years , 2007, The New England journal of medicine.

[33]  G. Alvarez.  Representing multiple objects as an ensemble enhances visual cognition , 2011, Trends in Cognitive Sciences.

[34]  Joshua M. Epstein,et al.  Generative Social Science , 2006 .

[35]  K. Brownell,et al.  Weight-related attitudes and behaviors of women who diet to lose weight: a comparison of black dieters and white dieters. , 1996, Obesity research.

[36]  Ross A Hammond,et al.  The economic impact of obesity in the United States , 2010, Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy.

[37]  M. Mifflin,et al.  A new predictive equation for resting energy expenditure in healthy individuals. , 1990, The American journal of clinical nutrition.

[38]  G. Oster,et al.  Body mass index and future healthcare costs: a retrospective cohort study. , 2001, Obesity research.

[39]  M. Macy,et al.  Small Worlds and Cultural Polarization , 2011 .

[40]  Amy H Auchincloss,et al.  A new tool for epidemiology: the usefulness of dynamic-agent models in understanding place effects on health. , 2008, American journal of epidemiology.

[41]  Thomas A Glass,et al.  Transforming research strategies for understanding and preventing obesity. , 2008, JAMA.

[42]  Kayo Fujimoto,et al.  Adolescent affiliations and adiposity: a social network analysis of friendships and obesity. , 2009, The Journal of adolescent health : official publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine.

[43]  Ross A Hammond,et al.  Social influence and obesity. , 2010, Current opinion in endocrinology, diabetes, and obesity.

[44]  P. Cavanagh.  Seeing the forest but not the trees , 2001, Nature Neuroscience.

[45]  R. Jeffery,et al.  Is dieting good for you?: Prevalence, duration and associated weight and behaviour changes for specific weight loss strategies over four years in US adults , 1999, International Journal of Obesity.

[46]  D. Ariely.  Seeing Sets: Representation by Statistical Properties , 2001, Psychological science.

[47]  O. Rosin.  Weight-loss dieting behavior: an economic analysis. , 2012, Health economics.