Evaluation of Development Process of Strategic UAV Considering the Risk

Economic evaluation of macro projects requiring a high volume of investment is one of important issues in the area of financial research. To deal with this problem, a great number of models such as direct operating cost, discounted cash flow analysis (e.g. net present value or internal rate of return), decision tree and real option analysis have been developed. Application of real option analysis has drawn more attention in recent researches because of the ability to assess the flexibility and considering the risk. In the present article, also, this theory is used to evaluate the development process of strategic unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). To do this, a model comprising 4 development stages is used with each stage applying a novel approach to implement the model. In particular, we have tried to calculate and include the risk in an organized form in the model. Results obtained from a case study will be described at the end.

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