Changing Uses of Climate Predictions in Agriculture: Implications for Prediction Research, Providers, and Users

Abstract A series of seven studies of the usage of climate predictions by U.S. agribusinesses were conducted during 1981–2001, and their results have been reviewed to identify information to guide future predictive research, providers of predictions, and agribusiness users. Usage fell in two broad classes, for general background information or for making specific business decisions, and both classes revealed sizable increases in usage over the 21-yr period. Business sectors where usage grew rapidly included farm managers/consultants, seed growers, and food-producing firms. The increases in usage over time were attributed to five factors including growing economic pressures in agriculture, improvements in access to predictive information, improved accuracy of predictions, better formats and timeliness of predictions, and increasing employment of atmospheric sciences expertise, either in the firms or as advisors. The value of using predictions in business decisions was estimated as >$100,000 annually by a t...