Premonitory transformation of steel fracturing and seismicity

Abstract Transformation of microfracturing preceding the break up of steel and rock samples is similar to transformation of earthquakes flow prior to strong earthquakes in Southern California. The break up in a sample is preceded by transition from formation of new microcracks to coalescence or expansion of existing cracks. This is reflected in the relation between the length and the number of the cracks. Similar transformation of seismicity precedes Southern California earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 6.6, 1935–1994. Specifically, magnitude-frequency relation bends downward for magnitudes from 3 to 4.5 and upward for magnitudes from about 4.5 to 6; in the usual notations the ‘b-value’ becomes larger in the first interval and smaller in the second one. This transformation is accompanied by the increased share of aftershocks in the earthquakes flow. In such a way the approach of a strong earthquake is reflected in both major traits of seismicity: magnitude-frequency relation and earthquake clustering. Imprecision of the earthquake catalog and reasonable variations in its analysis do not change our conclusions. This phenomenon explains, so far—qualitatively, a wide set of premonitory seismicity patterns. We give it a formal definition, allowing to test whether it takes place in other seismic regions.

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