ROAD LOSS RESEARCH IN AUSTRALIA: THE POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION OF ECONOMETRICS

The nature of a research project into road fatalities being conducted by the NRMA is described. The objective is to quantify, by econometric methods, the separate contribution to the annual number of road fatalities in both NSW and Victoria of the major variables held to affect fatalities. These variables include kilometres travelled, per cent of freeways in road network, vehicle density, police activity, seat belt usage, roadwork investment, average household income, alcohol consumption, driver age structure, private versus business travel, migrant drivers, quality of hospital services, mix of vehicle sizes, rainfall, speed limits, country versus city travel, etc. It is explained how econometric research can be of considerable assistance to the road safety policy maker and why the method has been little used in the past. A theory is outlined as to what generates road fatalities in our society. This is done so as to provide a basis for estimating, in the modelling process, the level of fatalities there would be in the absence of road safety measures. The difference between this level and actual fatalities is a measure of policy effectiveness. The paper goes on to describe the classes of fatalities modelled and describes in detail the independent variables used in the modelling process (a). The number of the covering abstract of the conference is TRIS no. 368448. (TRRL)