The influence of the Columbia River plume on the survival of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha): a numerical exploration

Are smolt-to-adult return rates (SARs) for wild steelhead (i.e., sea-run rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss) and wild Snake River spring–summer Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) related to changes in the Columbia River plume at the time that juvenile migrants enter the ocean? We used three-dimensional (3D) numerical models of the baroclinic circulation in the Columbia River estuary–plume–shelf system to simulate within-season variation in plume size and location, comparing the results with SARs for each day that juvenile salmon entered the ocean for 1999–2003. We found that steelhead benefited from the plume environment at a narrow window of time around their ocean entry. However, when large-scale ocean conditions turned unfavorable, the contribution of local plume conditions to the overall variability in steelhead survival became not significant. A similar evaluation revealed that the plume did not affect survival of Chinook salmon, at least at the fine scale of variability considered. The differ...

[1]  R. Brodeur,et al.  The vertical distribution of juvenile salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and associated fishes in the Columbia River plume , 2004 .

[2]  António M. Baptista,et al.  A cross-scale model for 3D baroclinic circulation in estuary–plume–shelf systems: II. Application to the Columbia River , 2005 .

[3]  S. Johnson.  The effects of the 1983 El Niño on Oregon's Coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and Chinook (O. tshawytscha) Salmon , 1988 .

[4]  António M. Baptista,et al.  SELFE: A semi-implicit Eulerian–Lagrangian finite-element model for cross-scale ocean circulation , 2008 .

[5]  António M. Baptista,et al.  Seasonal and interannual variability of the Columbia River plume: A perspective enabled by multiyear simulation databases , 2010 .

[6]  E. Ziegel,et al.  Statistical data analysis for ocean and atmospheric sciences , 1995 .

[7]  Dennis P. Lettenmaier,et al.  Columbia River Streamflow Forecasting Based on ENSO and PDO Climate Signals , 1999 .

[8]  Edward P. Myers,et al.  A cross-scale model for 3D baroclinic circulation in estuary-plume-shelf systems: I , 2004 .

[9]  L. Pietrafesa,et al.  The Columbia River plume study : Subtidal variability in the velocity and salinity fields , 1998 .

[10]  Columbia River plume fronts. II. Distribution, abundance, and feeding ecology of juvenile salmon , 2005 .

[11]  A. Baptista,et al.  CORIE: the first decade of a coastal-margin collaborative observatory , 2006, OCEANS 2006.

[12]  John G. Williams,et al.  Forecasting climate‐induced changes in the survival of Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) , 2005 .

[13]  Douglas M. Marsh,et al.  Effects of the federal Columbia River Power System on salmonid populations , 2005 .

[14]  Steven B. Barton,et al.  Effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation on Water Supply in the Columbia River Basin , 2004 .

[15]  Carl J. Walters,et al.  Patterns of covariation in survival rates of British Columbian and Alaskan sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks , 1998 .

[16]  J A Hanley,et al.  If nothing goes wrong, is everything all right? Interpreting zero numerators. , 1983, JAMA.

[17]  R. Brodeur,et al.  Prey selectivity and diel feeding chronology of juvenile chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and coho (O. kisutch) salmon in the Columbia River plume , 2003 .

[18]  Theiler,et al.  Generating surrogate data for time series with several simultaneously measured variables. , 1994, Physical review letters.

[19]  A. D. Robertis,et al.  Columbia River plume fronts. I. Hydrography, zooplankton distribution, and community composition , 2005 .

[20]  M. Scheuerell,et al.  Relating juvenile migration timing and survival to adulthood in two species of threatened Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) , 2009 .

[21]  R. Peterman,et al.  Comparison of methods to account for autocorrelation in correlation analyses of fish data , 1998 .

[22]  P. Kareiva,et al.  Recovery and management options for spring/summer chinook salmon in the Columbia River basin. , 2000, Science.

[23]  F. Schwing,et al.  A new climate regime in northeast pacific ecosystems , 2003 .

[24]  Migration Timing of Columbia River Spring Chinook Salmon: Effects of Temperature, River Discharge, and Ocean Environment , 2008 .

[25]  Hongsheng Bi,et al.  Modeling the pelagic habitat of salmon off the Pacific Northwest (USA) coast using logistic regression , 2007 .

[26]  W. Ebisuzaki.  A Method to Estimate the Statistical Significance of a Correlation When the Data Are Serially Correlated , 1997 .

[27]  M. Bradford.  Comparative review of Pacific salmon survival rates , 1995 .

[28]  Steven R. Hare,et al.  Inverse Production Regimes: Alaska and West Coast Pacific Salmon , 1999 .

[29]  J. Wallace,et al.  A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production , 1997 .

[30]  P. Harrison,et al.  A Relationship between Fraser River Discharge and Interannual Production of Pacific Salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) in the Strait of Georgia , 1994 .

[31]  Barbara M. Hickey,et al.  A bi-directional river plume: The Columbia in summer , 2005 .