Introducing MoPeD 2.0: A Model of Pedestrian Demand, Integrated with Trip-Based Travel Demand Forecasting Models

This paper describes an innovative, spatially-disaggregate framework to integrate pedestrian demand estimation with trip-based travel models: MoPeD, a model of pedestrian demand. Designed for the Portland, Oregon, region, the proposed method applies trip generation to new 264ft by 264ft (80m by 80m) gridded pedestrian analysis zones (PAZs). Next, a binary logit walk mode split model using a new pedestrian index of the environment (PIE) measure estimates the number of walk trips generated. Non-walk trips are aggregated up to larger transportation analysis zones for destination choice, mode choice, and traffic assignment. Finally, opportunities exist for destination choice and potential routing of PAZ pedestrian trips. This innovative framework improves travel models' policy sensitivity to walking influences, and it could operate as a standalone pedestrian planning tool for rapid scenario analysis. Statement of Financial Interest The authors have no financial interest in and will receive no financial gain from promulgating or distributing the concepts and innovations contained in this submission. Statement of Innovation This research brief describes an innovative, spatially-disaggregate framework to integrate pedestrian demand estimation with trip-based travel demand models. It proposes a new zonal structure, environment measure, and method to analyze pedestrian travel. Notably: 1) Trips are analyzed at a sensible spatial scale for each mode; 2) Pedestrian travel can be predicted with more behaviorallyrelevant built environment measures; 3) Existing travel model structures require minimal modification to implement this method; and 4) This framework sets the stage for developing a useful pedestrian planning tool. This research brief directly addresses three topic areas of innovation. A) #3. Innovations in Modeling Under-Studied Travel Markets, 2: Emerging modes such as bike, walk. B) #2. Innovations in Improving the Sensitivity of Models, 2: Capturing the impact of the pedestrian environment on travel and its incorporation in travel models. C) New topic #4. Advances in bike and pedestrian modeling. Introducing MoPeD 2.0: A Model of Pedestrian Demand, Integrated with Trip-Based Travel Demand Forecasting Models Patrick A. Singleton (corresponding author) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Portland State University PO Box 751—CEE Portland, OR 97207-0751 Phone: 412-480-7685 Fax: 503-725-5950 Email: patrick.singleton@pdx.edu Christopher D. Muhs Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Portland State University PO Box 751—CEE Portland, OR 97207-0751 Phone: 610-960-7490 Fax: 503-725-5950 Email: muhs@pdx.edu Robert J. Schneider, Ph.D. Department of Urban Planning University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee PO Box 413 Milwaukee, WI 53201 Phone: 414-229-4041 Fax: 414-229-6976 Email: rjschnei@uwm.edu Kelly J. Clifton, Ph.D. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Portland State University PO Box 751—CEE Portland, OR 97207-0751 Phone: 503-725-2871 Fax: 503-725-5950 Email: kclifton@pdx.edu Submitted: 02 December 2013 Revised: 28 March 2014 Paper presented at the 5 th Transportation Research Board Conference on Innovations in Travel Modeling (ITM), 27–30 April 2014, Baltimore, MD. Word count: 2,745 + (0 tables + 1 figure) * 250 = 2,995 total words Singleton, Muhs, Schneider, and Clifton 2