Internet-based instruction of the principles of base rate and prediction: A demonstration project

An Internet-based instructional module was developed using Netscape 2.0 as the graphical interface. The content concerned Bayesian probabilities and expected outcomes associated with the use of urine drug screens. JavaScript enabled interactive calculations of outcome probabilities given a selected set of parameters, and AppleScript and Claris Filemaker Pro monitored and recorded student activity and progress. The module was initially used in an undergraduate class on alcohol and drugs and subsequently evaluated on a sample of undergraduates. Student response was favorable, and student learning assessed by performance on an exam was good. Students who described themselves as not computer literate did not particularly enjoy the experience, although they performed as well as others on the test. The success of this demonstration project has led to more ambitious implementations, particularly those that monitor student activities and provide intelligent feedback.