A Threshold-Based Weather Model for Predicting Stripe Rust Infection in Winter Wheat.

Wheat stripe rust (caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici) is a major threat in most wheat growing regions worldwide, which potentially causes substantial yield losses when environmental conditions are favorable. Data from 1999 to 2015 for three representative wheat-growing sites in Luxembourg were used to develop a threshold-based weather model for predicting wheat stripe rust. First, the range of favorable weather conditions using a Monte Carlo simulation method based on the Dennis model were characterized. Then, the optimum combined favorable weather variables (air temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall) during the most critical infection period (May-June) was identified and was used to develop the model. Uninterrupted hours with such favorable weather conditions over each dekad (i.e., 10-day period) during May-June were also considered when building the model. Results showed that a combination of relative humidity >92% and 4°C < temperature < 16°C for a minimum of 4 continuous hours, associated with rainfall ≤0.1 mm (with the dekad having these conditions for 5 to 20% of the time), were optimum to the development of a wheat stripe rust epidemic. The model accurately predicted infection events: probabilities of detection were ≥0.90 and false alarm ratios were ≤0.38 on average, and critical success indexes ranged from 0.63 to 1. The method is potentially applicable to studies of other economically important fungal diseases of other crops or in different geographical locations. If weather forecasts are available, the threshold-based weather model can be integrated into an operational warning system to guide fungicide applications.

[1]  I. Sache,et al.  Comparison of the Wheat Brown and Yellow Rusts for Monocyclic Sporulation and Infection Processes, and their Polycyclic Consequences , 1993 .

[2]  F. Lupton.  Further experiments on photosynthesis and translocation in wheat , 1972 .

[3]  T. B. Vaughan,et al.  Predicting effective fungicide doses through observation of leaf emergence , 2000 .

[4]  C. Wellings,et al.  Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici in Australasia: pathogenic changes during the first 10 years , 1990 .

[5]  A. Justesen,et al.  Sexual structures and recombination of the wheat rust fungus Puccinia striiformis on Berberis vulgaris. , 2014, Fungal genetics and biology : FG & B.

[6]  Pierre L'Ecuyer,et al.  Combined Multiple Recursive Random Number Generators , 1995, Oper. Res..

[7]  L. Hoffmann,et al.  Economics of a decision-support system for managing the main fungal diseases of winter wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg , 2015 .

[8]  James K. M. Brown,et al.  Clonality and long‐distance migration of Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici in north‐west Europe , 2002 .

[9]  Tracy Rowlandson,et al.  Reconsidering Leaf Wetness Duration Determination for Plant Disease Management. , 2015, Plant disease.

[10]  F Rapilly,et al.  Yellow Rust Epidemiology , 1979 .

[11]  S. Coakley,et al.  Predicting Stripe Rust Severity on Winter Wheat Using an Improved Method for Analyzing Meteorological and Rust Data , 1988 .

[12]  M. Crown,et al.  Validation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's solar flare forecasting look‐up table and forecaster‐issued probabilities , 2012 .

[13]  Rachel Eddy.  Logistic regression models to predict stripe rust infections on wheat and yield response to foliar fungicide application on wheat in Kansas , 2009 .

[14]  L. Hoffmann,et al.  Assessing the Accuracy of Simulation Model for Septoria Leaf Blotch Disease Progress on Winter Wheat. , 2009, Plant disease.

[15]  J. Zadoks.  On the conceptual basis of crop loss assessment: the threshold theory , 1985 .

[16]  Y. Luo,et al.  Risk analysis of disease epidemics on wheat by simulation studies , 1993 .

[17]  L. Hoffmann,et al.  Site-Specific Septoria Leaf Blotch Risk Assessment in Winter Wheat Using Weather-Radar Rainfall Estimates. , 2011, Plant disease.

[18]  Xianming Chen,et al.  Virulence and Simple Sequence Repeat Marker Segregation in a Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici Population Produced by Selfing a Chinese Isolate on Berberis shensiana. , 2016, Phytopathology.

[19]  A. Newton,et al.  Assessment of epidemiological parameters and their use in epidemiological and forecasting models of cereal airborne diseases , 2000 .

[20]  L. Szabo,et al.  Century-old mystery of Puccinia striiformis life history solved with the identification of Berberis as an alternate host. , 2010, Phytopathology.

[21]  J. Hansen,et al.  Replacement of the European wheat yellow rust population by new races from the centre of diversity in the near-Himalayan region , 2016 .

[22]  Understanding Puccinia striiformis West. epidemics on winter wheat. , 2002, Mededelingen.

[23]  P. Teng.  Estimating and Interpreting Disease Intensity and Loss in Commercial Fields , 1983 .

[24]  T. Gillespie,et al.  Modeling Leaf Wetness in Relation to Plant Disease Epidemiology , 1992 .

[25]  A. Justesen,et al.  Diversity of Puccinia striiformis on cereals and grasses. , 2011, Annual review of phytopathology.

[26]  Krishnamurty Muralidhar.  Monte Carlo Simulation , 2002, Encyclopedia of Information Systems.

[27]  Xianming Chen,et al.  Identification of eighteen Berberis species as alternate hosts of Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici and virulence variation in the pathogen isolates from natural infection of barberry plants in China. , 2013, Phytopathology.

[28]  L. Pfister,et al.  Operational application and improvements of the disease risk forecast model PROCULTURE to optimize fungicides spray for the septoria leaf blotch disease in winter wheat in Luxembourg , 2008 .

[29]  I. Sache.  Short-distance dispersal of wheat rust spores , 2000 .

[30]  L. Hoffmann,et al.  Typology of the Main Fungal Diseases Affecting Winter Wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg , 2012 .

[31]  Daniel S. Wilks,et al.  Threshold Relative Humidity Duration Forecasts for Plant Disease Prediction. , 1991 .

[32]  R. Line,et al.  Stripe rust of wheat and barley in North America: a retrospective historical review. , 2002, Annual review of phytopathology.

[33]  B. Tychon,et al.  Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: II. Exploring the optimization of fungicide sprays through a decision support system , 2014, Environmental Science and Pollution Research.

[34]  J. Dennis.  Temperature and wet-period conditions for infection by Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici race 104E137A + , 1987 .

[35]  Y. Luo,et al.  Simulation studies on epidemics of wheat stripe rust (Puccinia striiformis) on slow‐rusting cultivars and analysis of effects of resistance components , 1995 .

[36]  A. Howell,et al.  DISTRAIN: a computer program for training people to estimate disease severity on cereal leaves. , 1988 .

[37]  J. Metz,et al.  Focus expansion in plant disease. III: Two experimental examples , 1988 .

[38]  T. B. Sutton,et al.  A simple generic infection model for foliar fungal plant pathogens. , 2005, Phytopathology.

[39]  L. Huber,et al.  Comparative effect of temperature and interrupted wet periods on germination, penetration, and infection of Puccinia recondita f. sp. tritici and P. striiformis on wheat seedlings , 1995 .

[40]  J. Verreet,et al.  Regional Monitoring for Disease Prediction and Optimization of Plant Protection Measuares: The IPM Wheat Model. , 2000, Plant disease.

[41]  and R A Krause,et al.  Predictive Systems: Modern Approaches to Disease Control , 1975 .

[42]  H. A. McCartney,et al.  Influence of simulated rain on dispersal of rust spores from infected wheat seedlings , 2000 .

[43]  T. B. Vaughan,et al.  Predicting epidemics of yellow rust (Puccinia striiformis) on the upper canopy of wheat from disease observations on lower leaves , 2003 .

[44]  David Lee,et al.  SRAP Technique Efficiently Generates Polymorphisms in Puccinia striiformis Isolates , 2010 .

[45]  J. Zadoks.  A decimal code for the growth stages of cereals , 1974 .

[46]  Huber,et al.  Dry-dispersal and rain-splash of brown (Puccinia recondita f.sp. tritici) and yellow (P. striiformis) rust spores from infected wheat leaves exposed to simulated raindrops , 1999 .

[47]  C. Ridout,et al.  The recent history of Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici in Denmark as revealed by disease incidence and AFLP markers , 2002 .

[48]  J. Schafer.  Invitational Papers Presented at the Sixty-First Annual Meeting of The American Phytopathological Society, Spokane, Washington, 21 August 1969 Introductory Remarks , 1971 .

[49]  J. Junk,et al.  Effects of regional climate change on brown rust disease in winter wheat , 2016, Climatic Change.

[50]  B. Tychon,et al.  Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: I. Exploring an approach for disease progression based on night weather conditions , 2014, Environmental Science and Pollution Research.