Modelling PV Clouding Effects Using a Semi-Markov Process with Application to Energy Storage

Abstract Cloud-induced intermittency of photovoltaic (PV) generation forces equipment on the electrical grid to cycle excessively preventing PV from being considered as a reliable or dispatchable source of power. Energy storage units (ESU) are proposed to turn PV power dispatchable. In order to use an ESU most effectively, it must be controlled appropriately by considering cloud-induced effects. To this end, the cloud structure is modeled as a random sequence inferred from clouding data. The proposed model is valid for centralized PV installations and serves to develop not only a control methodology to coordinate an ESU with existing grid equipment but also as a sizing criterion for an ESU. The above methodology is demonstrated on both clouding data collected from a rooftop PV installation that includes a pyranometer.

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