Development of spatial water resources vulnerability index considering climate change impacts.

This study developed a new framework to quantify spatial vulnerability for sustainable water resources management. Four hydrologic vulnerability indices--potential flood damage (PFDC), potential drought damage (PDDC), potential water quality deterioration (PWQDC), and watershed evaluation index (WEIC)--were modified to quantify flood damage, drought damage, water quality deterioration, and overall watershed risk considering the impact of climate change, respectively. The concept of sustainability in the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was applied in selecting all appropriate indicators (criteria) of climate change impacts. In the examination of climate change, future meteorological data was obtained using CGCM3 (Canadian Global Coupled Model) and SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model), and future stream run-off and water quality were simulated using HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran). The four modified indices were then calculated using TOPSIS, a multi-attribute method of decision analysis. As a result, the ranking obtained can be changed in consideration of climate change impacts. This study represents a new attempt to quantify hydrologic vulnerability in a manner that takes into account both climate change impacts and the concept of sustainability.

[1]  Richard M. Vogel,et al.  Indicators of Impacts of Global Climate Change on U.S. Water Resources , 1999 .

[2]  Junyi Zhang,et al.  Urbanization and subsurface environmental issues: an attempt at DPSIR model application in Asian cities. , 2009, The Science of the total environment.

[3]  Assessing future climate change impact on hydrologic components of Gyeongancheon watershed. , 2009 .

[4]  David A. Plummer,et al.  Technical Note: The CCCma third generation AGCM and its extension into the middle atmosphere , 2008 .

[5]  Mohamed A. Hamouda,et al.  Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources Systems in the Eastern Nile Basin , 2009 .

[6]  M. A. Yurdusev,et al.  Environmentally-Sensitive Water-Resources Planning: , 2005 .

[7]  Eun-Sung Chung,et al.  Identification of Spatial Ranking of Hydrological Vulnerability Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making Techniques: Case Study of Korea , 2009 .

[8]  John R. Kelly,et al.  Indicators of ecosystem recovery , 1990 .

[9]  J. Walmsley.  Framework for Measuring Sustainable Development in Catchment Systems , 2002, Environmental management.

[10]  P. Waggoner,et al.  Climate change and U.S. water resources , 1990 .

[11]  H. Kwon,et al.  Assessment of the impact of climate change on the flow regime of the Han River basin using indicators of hydrologic alteration , 2011 .

[12]  R. Wilby.  Stochastic weather type simulation for regional climate change impact assessment , 1994 .

[13]  F. Giorgi,et al.  Consistent changes in twenty‐first century daily precipitation from regional climate simulations for Korea using two convection parameterizations , 2008 .

[14]  J. Seager,et al.  Perspectives and limitations of indicators in water management , 2001 .

[15]  T. Chu.  Selecting Plant Location via a Fuzzy TOPSIS Approach , 2002 .

[16]  David A. Plummer,et al.  The CCCma third generation AGCM and its extension into the middle atmosphere , 2008 .

[17]  Miguel A. Mariño,et al.  Fuzzy TOPSIS Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Applied to Karun Reservoirs System , 2011 .

[18]  Ching-Lai Hwang,et al.  Multiple Attribute Decision Making: Methods and Applications - A State-of-the-Art Survey , 1981, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems.

[19]  H. Chaves,et al.  An Integrated Indicator Based on Basin Hydrology, Environment, Life, and Policy: The Watershed Sustainability Index , 2007 .

[20]  K. J. Sene,et al.  A Grid-Based Approach to Water Scarcity Estimates for Eastern and Southern Africa , 1999 .

[21]  W. Scott Overton,et al.  An EPA program for monitoring ecological status and trends , 1991, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[22]  Eun-Sung Chung,et al.  Prioritization of water management for sustainability using hydrologic simulation model and multicriteria decision making techniques. , 2009, Journal of environmental management.

[23]  Robert L. Wilby,et al.  Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK , 2006 .

[24]  N. Skoulikidis.  The environmental state of rivers in the Balkans--a review within the DPSIR framework. , 2009, The Science of the total environment.

[25]  A. Zuur,et al.  Analysing Ecological Data , 2007 .

[26]  Seongjoon Kim,et al.  Watershed modeling for assessing climate change impact on stream water quality of Chungju Dam watershed. , 2009 .

[27]  Rafael Muñoz-Carpena,et al.  Temporal Common Trends of Topsoil Water Dynamics in a Humid Subtropical Forest Watershed , 2009 .

[28]  Christian W. Dawson,et al.  SDSM - a decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts , 2002, Environ. Model. Softw..

[29]  Deg-Hyo Bae,et al.  Long‐term trend of precipitation and runoff in Korean river basins , 2008 .

[30]  T. Wigley,et al.  Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations , 1997 .

[31]  Trevor C. Hughes,et al.  Vulnerability of Water Supply Systems to Droughts , 1980 .

[32]  M. A. Yurdusev,et al.  Environmentally-Sensitive Water Resources Planning , 2005 .

[33]  B. Hewitson,et al.  Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South Africa , 2006 .

[34]  J. Notenboom,et al.  Present state and future prospects for groundwater ecosystems , 2003, Environmental Conservation.

[35]  Robert E. Bowen,et al.  Socio-economic indicators and integrated coastal management , 2003 .

[36]  R. Reynolds,et al.  The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project , 1996, Renewable Energy.

[37]  M. Stenstrom,et al.  Phosphorus release rates from sediments and pollutant characteristics in Han River, Seoul, Korea. , 2003, The Science of the total environment.

[38]  Ibon Galparsoro,et al.  The European Water Framework Directive and the DPSIR, a methodological approach to assess the risk of failing to achieve good ecological status , 2006 .

[39]  András Bárdossy,et al.  Network design for the spatial estimation of environmental variables , 1983 .

[40]  J. Ryu,et al.  Hydrogeochemical and isotopic investigations of the Han River basin, South Korea , 2007 .

[41]  N. Crawford,et al.  DIGITAL SIMULATION IN HYDROLOGY' STANFORD WATERSHED MODEL 4 , 1966 .

[42]  Deg-Hyo Bae,et al.  Potential changes in Korean water resources estimated by high-resolution climate simulation , 2008 .

[43]  W. Adger,et al.  The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications f , 2005 .

[44]  Eun-Sung Chung,et al.  The relative impacts of climate change and urbanization on the hydrological response of a Korean urban watershed , 2011 .

[45]  Nicola Pirrone,et al.  The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach for integrated catchment-coastal zone management: preliminary application to the Po catchment-Adriatic Sea coastal zone system , 2005 .

[46]  James R. Karr,et al.  Assessing biological integrity in running waters : a method and its rationale , 1986 .