An Expectation-Based Scan Statistic for Detection of Space-Time Clusters

OBJECTIVE This paper describes a new class of space-time scan statistics designed for rapid detection of emerging disease clusters. We evaluate these methods on the task of prospective disease surveillance, and show that our methods consistently outperform the standard space-time scan statistic approach. BACKGROUND The space-time scan statistic [1] is a powerful statistical tool for prospective disease surveillance. It searches over a set of spatio-temporal regions (each representing some spatial area S for the last k days), finding the most significant regions (S, k) by maximizing a likelihood ratio statistic, and computing pvalues of these potential clusters by randomization.