Anthropogenic CO2 monitoring satellite mission: the need for multi-angle polarimetric observations

Atmospheric aerosols have been known to be a major source of uncertainties in CO2 concentrations retrieved from space. In this study, we investigate the added value of multi-angle polarimeter (MAP) measurements in the context of the Copernicus Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Monitoring (CO2M) mission. To this end, we compare aerosolinduced XCO2 errors from standard retrievals using a spectrometer only (without MAP) with those from retrievals using both MAP and a spectrometer. MAP observations are expected to provide information about aerosols that is useful for improving XCO2 accuracy. For the purpose of this work, we generate synthetic measurements for different atmospheric and geophysical scenes over land, based on which XCO2 retrieval errors are assessed. We show that the standard XCO2 retrieval approach that makes no use of auxiliary aerosol observations returns XCO2 errors with an overall bias of 1.12 ppm and a spread (defined as half of the 15.9–84.1 percentile range) of 2.07 ppm. The latter is far higher than the required XCO2 accuracy (0.5 ppm) and precision (0.7 ppm) of the CO2M mission. Moreover, these XCO2 errors exhibit a significantly larger bias and scatter at high aerosol optical depth, high aerosol altitude, and low solar zenith angle, which could lead to worse performance in retrieving XCO2 from polluted areas where CO2 and aerosols are co-emitted. We proceed to determine MAP instrument specifications in terms of wavelength range, number of viewing angles, and measurement uncertainties that are required to achieve XCO2 accuracy and precision targets of the mission. Two different MAP instrument concepts are considered in this analysis. We find that for either concept, MAP measurement uncertainties on radiance and degree of linear polarization should be no more than 3 % and 0.003, respectively. A retrieval exercise using MAP and spectrometer measurements of the synthetic scenes is carried out for each of the two MAP concepts. The resulting XCO2 errors have an overall bias of −0.004 ppm and a spread of 0.54 ppm for one concept, and a bias of 0.02 ppm and a spread of 0.52 ppm for the other concept. Both are compliant with the CO2M mission requirements; the very low bias is especially important for proper emission estimates. For the test ensemble, we find effectively no dependence of the XCO2 errors on aerosol optical depth, altitude of the aerosol layer, and solar zenith angle. These results indicate a major improvement in the retrieved XCO2 accuracy with respect to the standard retrieval approach, which could lead to a higher data yield, better global coverage, and a more comprehensive determination of CO2 sinks and sources. As such, this outcome underlines the contribution of, and therefore the need for, a MAP instrument aboard the CO2M mission.