Forecasting OLED TV technology using bibliometrics and Fisher-Pry diffusion model

The market of flat panel displays is experiencing rapid growth with the advancement of digital technologies in broadcasting service. The next challenge of LCD is OLED in TV market. The study attempts to investigate the trends in advanced or emerging technologies by determining their technology diffusion rates due to the lack of experiential data. With the development of information and communication technology, one of the recent methods to assist in technology forecasting is data mining in bibliometric or textual data from various sources such as patents, journals, and research awards. The information extracted from diverse sources can be employed in technology diffusion models such as Fisher-Pry where emerging technologies substitute older ones. The study uses web of science and compendex for bibliometric analysis to forecast the growth of next-generation OLED technologies based on the analogous growths of LCD technologies.

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