Prediction of a Movie’s Success From Plot Summaries Using Deep Learning Models

As the size of investment for movie production grows bigger, the need for predicting a movie’s success in early stages has increased. To address this need, various approaches have been proposed, mostly relying on movie reviews, trailer movie clips, and SNS postings. However, all of these are available only after a movie is produced and released. To enable a more earlier prediction of a movie’s performance, we propose a deep-learning based approach to predict the success of a movie using only its plot summary text. This paper reports the results evaluating the efficacy of the proposed method and concludes with discussions and future work.

[1]  Farhana H. Zulkernine,et al.  Predicting Movie Box Office Profitability: A Neural Network Approach , 2016, 2016 15th IEEE International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications (ICMLA).

[2]  Sam K. Hui,et al.  Green-lighting Movie Scripts : Revenue Forecasting and Risk Management , 2010 .

[3]  Brendan T. O'Connor,et al.  Learning Latent Personas of Film Characters , 2013, ACL.

[4]  Christian S. Perone,et al.  Evaluation of sentence embeddings in downstream and linguistic probing tasks , 2018, ArXiv.

[5]  Jeffrey Dean,et al.  Efficient Estimation of Word Representations in Vector Space , 2013, ICLR.

[6]  Taha Yasseri,et al.  Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success Based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data , 2012, PloS one.

[7]  Jingfei Du,et al.  Box office prediction based on microblog , 2014, Expert Syst. Appl..

[8]  Geoffrey E. Hinton,et al.  Rectified Linear Units Improve Restricted Boltzmann Machines , 2010, ICML.

[9]  W. Walls,et al.  Uncertainty in the Movie Industry: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office? , 1999 .

[10]  Ramesh Sharda,et al.  Predicting box-office success of motion pictures with neural networks , 2006 .

[11]  Eric Gilbert,et al.  VADER: A Parsimonious Rule-Based Model for Sentiment Analysis of Social Media Text , 2014, ICWSM.

[12]  Z. John Zhang,et al.  Assessing Box Office Performance Using Movie Scripts: A Kernel-Based Approach , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering.

[13]  Peter A. Gloor,et al.  Predicting Movie Prices Through Dynamic Social Network Analysis , 2010 .

[14]  Ronald R. Yager,et al.  Suggesting Recommendations Using Pythagorean Fuzzy Sets illustrated Using Netflix Movie Data , 2014, IPMU.

[15]  Jeffrey Pennington,et al.  GloVe: Global Vectors for Word Representation , 2014, EMNLP.

[16]  Luke S. Zettlemoyer,et al.  Deep Contextualized Word Representations , 2018, NAACL.

[17]  Li Zhang,et al.  Forecasting box office revenue of movies with BP neural network , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[18]  Sonali Agarwal,et al.  Movie Box-Office Gross Revenue Estimation , 2018 .

[19]  Sameer Ranjan Jaiswal,et al.  Predicting Success of Bollywood Movies Using Machine Learning Techniques , 2017, Compute '17.

[20]  Z. John Zhang,et al.  From Story Line to Box Office: A New Approach for Green-Lighting Movie Scripts , 2007, Manag. Sci..