Hydrogeological Decision Analysis: 1. A Framework

This paper is the first in a four-part series that describes the application of decision analysis to engineering design for projects in which the hydrogeological environment plays an important role. The methodology is well-suited to the design of containment facilities at new waste-management facilities, purge-well networks in contaminant remediation applications, or drainage systems in geotechnical projects. It is based on a risk-based philosophy of engineering design. It involves the coupling of three separate models: a decision model based on a risk-cost-benefit objective function, a simulation model for ground-water flow and transport, and an uncertainty model that encompasses both geological uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. The approach can be used for the comparison of alternative engineered components of a system, for the design of monitoring systems, and for the assessment of data worth in the design of site investigation programs. This first paper lays the framework; the subsequent papers escribe how the methods can be applied in geotechnical and waste-management applications.

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