A two-stage stochastic model for location planning of temporary medical centers for disaster response

Abstract Devastating effects of disasters and global crises on people increase the importance of humanitarian logistics studies for pre and post-disaster stages. Location planning of Temporary Medical Centers/field hospitals is one of the most important problems for disaster response. We aimed to determine the location and number of temporary medical centers in case of disasters by considering the locations of the existing hospitals, casualty classification (triage), capacities of medical centers and possibilities of damage to the roads and hospitals. Besides, we aimed to assign different casualty classes to these medical centers for emergency medical response by considering the distances between disaster areas and medical centers. For this purpose, a two-stage stochastic programming model was developed. The proposed model finds an optimal TMC location solution while minimizing the total setup cost of the TMCs and the expected total transportation cost by considering casualty types, demand, possibilities of damage to the roads and hospitals, and distance between the disaster areas and the medical centers. In the model, α-reliability constraints for the expected number of unassigned casualties were also used. Besides, the model was reformulated without triage, in order to understand the impact of casualty classification on the solution of the problem. We performed a real case study for the district of Kartal expected to be widely damaged in the possible Istanbul earthquake, and a sensitivity analysis was made. The analysis of the results offer some managerial insights associated with the number of temporary medical centers’ needed, their locations, and additional hospital capacity requirements.

[1]  Yun-xian Hou,et al.  Ant Colony Optimization for Facility Location for Large-Scale Emergencies , 2009, 2009 International Conference on Management and Service Science.

[2]  Lijun Liu,et al.  Triage of pediatric injuries after the 2008 Wen-Chuan earthquake in China. , 2009, Journal of pediatric surgery.

[3]  Nilay Noyan,et al.  A Stochastic Optimization Model for Designing Last Mile Relief Networks , 2016, Transp. Sci..

[4]  Aytül Kasapoğlu,et al.  Impact of the 1999 East Marmara Earthquake in Turkey , 2003 .

[5]  H. Karaman,et al.  Accessibility of medical services following an earthquake: A case study of traffic and economic aspects affecting the Istanbul roadway , 2018, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction.

[6]  Amir Ahmadi-Javid,et al.  A survey of healthcare facility location , 2017, Comput. Oper. Res..

[7]  F. Sibel Salman,et al.  Locating disaster response facilities in Istanbul , 2011, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[8]  Chung-Cheng Lu,et al.  Robust weighted vertex p-center model considering uncertain data: An application to emergency management , 2013, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[9]  Hassan Abolghasemi,et al.  International Medical Response to a Natural Disaster: Lessons Learned from the Bam Earthquake Experience , 2006, Prehospital and Disaster Medicine.

[10]  Mark A. Turnquist,et al.  Pre-positioning of emergency supplies for disaster response , 2010 .

[11]  Gunesh Rajan,et al.  Earthquakes and Trauma: Review of Triage and Injury-Specific, Immediate Care , 2008, Prehospital and Disaster Medicine.

[12]  Mark A. Turnquist,et al.  Pre-positioning and dynamic delivery planning for short-term response following a natural disaster , 2012 .

[13]  H. Özgüç,et al.  Medical experience of a university hospital in Turkey after the 1999 Marmara earthquake , 2005, Emergency Medicine Journal.

[14]  Francisco J. Pino,et al.  A stochastic programming approach for floods emergency logistics , 2015 .

[15]  Mei-Shiang Chang,et al.  A scenario planning approach for the flood emergency logistics preparation problem under uncertainty , 2007 .

[16]  Gina Galindo,et al.  Prepositioning of supplies in preparation for a hurricane under potential destruction of prepositioned supplies , 2013 .

[17]  F. Sibel Salman,et al.  Emergency facility location under random network damage: Insights from the Istanbul case , 2015, Comput. Oper. Res..

[18]  S. Afshin Mansouri,et al.  Humanitarian logistics network design under mixed uncertainty , 2016, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[19]  Mark A. Turnquist,et al.  Pre-positioning planning for emergency response with service quality constraints , 2011, OR Spectr..

[20]  Jomon Aliyas Paul,et al.  Location and capacity allocations decisions to mitigate the impacts of unexpected disasters , 2016, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[21]  Takumi Asada,et al.  Facility location optimization model for emergency humanitarian logistics , 2017 .

[22]  Kamran Shahanaghi,et al.  A robust optimization model for distribution and evacuation in the disaster response phase , 2017 .

[23]  F. Sibel Salman,et al.  Pre-disaster investment decisions for strengthening a highway network , 2010, Comput. Oper. Res..

[24]  B. Alidaee,et al.  Allocation of emergency and recovery centres in Hidalgo, Mexico , 2009 .

[25]  Maged Dessouky,et al.  A modeling framework for facility location of medical services for large-scale emergencies , 2007 .

[26]  Na Cui,et al.  Integrated temporary facility location and casualty allocation planning for post-disaster humanitarian medical service , 2019, Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review.

[27]  Rajan Batta,et al.  Review of recent developments in OR/MS research in disaster operations management , 2013, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[28]  F. Sibel Salman,et al.  Deployment of field hospitals in mass casualty incidents , 2014, Comput. Ind. Eng..

[29]  Shao-Long Hu,et al.  Stochastic optimization for joint decision making of inventory and procurement in humanitarian relief , 2017, Comput. Ind. Eng..

[30]  J. Mulvey,et al.  Profile of injuries arising from the 2005 Kashmir earthquake: the first 72 h. , 2008, Injury.

[31]  Zelda B. Zabinsky,et al.  Stochastic optimization of medical supply location and distribution in disaster management , 2010 .

[32]  Benita M. Beamon,et al.  Inventory management support systems for emergency humanitarian relief operations in South Sudan , 2006 .

[33]  Mark S. Daskin,et al.  α-reliable p-minimax regret: a new model for strategic facility location modeling , 1997 .

[34]  Benita M. Beamon,et al.  Facility location in humanitarian relief , 2008 .

[35]  Mohamad Saeed Jabalameli,et al.  A multi-objective robust stochastic programming model for disaster relief logistics under uncertainty , 2011, OR Spectrum.

[36]  Madjid Tavana,et al.  An integrated location-inventory-routing humanitarian supply chain network with pre- and post-disaster management considerations , 2017, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences.

[37]  Xing Hong,et al.  Stochastic network design for disaster preparedness , 2015 .

[38]  Nilay Noyan,et al.  Risk-averse two-stage stochastic programming with an application to disaster management , 2012, Comput. Oper. Res..

[39]  Pinar Keskinocak,et al.  Pre-Positioning of Emergency Items for CARE International , 2011, Interfaces.

[40]  Bahar Yetis Kara,et al.  Locating temporary shelter areas after an earthquake: A case for Turkey , 2015, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[41]  Larry J. Shuman,et al.  Modeling emergency medical response to a mass casualty incident using agent based simulation , 2012 .

[42]  Adriana Leiras,et al.  Literature review of humanitarian logistics research: trends and challenges , 2014 .

[43]  Takashi Irohara,et al.  Stochastic optimisation model for integrated decisions on relief supply chains: preparedness for disaster response , 2017, Int. J. Prod. Res..

[44]  Fan Haojun,et al.  Retrospective, Analytical Study of Field First Aid following the Wenchuan Earthquake in China , 2011, Prehospital and Disaster Medicine.

[45]  Philip C. Jones,et al.  Prepositioning supplies in preparation for disasters , 2011, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[46]  D. Barnett,et al.  Personal Disaster Preparedness: An Integrative Review of the Literature , 2012, Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness.

[47]  Seokjin Kim,et al.  Facility location for large-scale emergencies , 2010, Ann. Oper. Res..

[48]  F. Sibel Salman,et al.  Assessing the reliability and the expected performance of a network under disaster risk , 2011, OR Spectr..

[49]  Nezir Aydin,et al.  A stochastic mathematical model to locate field hospitals under disruption uncertainty for large-scale disaster preparedness , 2016 .

[50]  Nezih Altay,et al.  OR/MS research in disaster operations management , 2006, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[51]  Maria E. Mayorga,et al.  Joint location and dispatching decisions for Emergency Medical Services , 2013, Comput. Ind. Eng..

[52]  A. Apte,et al.  Stochastic Optimization for Natural Disaster Asset Prepositioning , 2010 .