Studying the marine accidents of the Aegean Sea: critical review, analysis and results

ABSTRACT This paper aims at discovering characteristics, aspects and statistical patterns of recorded maritime accidents within specific zones of the Aegean Sea. A focused database with 10 years’ accidents data has been studied on the special characteristics of the ships that had been involved. Based on this database, the paper presents results derived by statistical analysis that are able to provide valuable information about the accidents under examination in terms of type, size and other parameters of the involved ships. Two models are developed and implemented to establish a risk perspective view of maritime transport within the Aegean Sea; a stochastic Poisson function is used to determine the probability of accident occurrence for each one of the three sea zones of study. Next, a fault-like approach is explored as the basis for an alternative way of studying marine safety; in this context, a seismic-driven model is applied for the calculation of the probability of accident occurrence. To do so, the concept of energy release is used so as to develop a novel modelling approach for maritime accidents. Both models present in a systematic way the hazardous profile of maritime transport in the Aegean. The paper concludes with valuable insights.

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