Climate Change in South Asia

South Asia, is home to over one fifth of the world’s population and is known to be the most disaster prone region in the world. The high rates of ­population growth, and natural resource degradation, with continuing high rates of poverty and food insecurity make South Asia one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. In general, past and present climate trends and ­variability in South Asia can be characterized by increasing air temperatures and there is an increasing trend in the intensity and frequency of extreme events in South Asia over the last century. Temperature projections for South Asia for the twenty-first century suggest a significant acceleration of warming over that observed in the ­twentieth century. Recent modelling experiments indicate that the warming would be ­significant in Himalayan Highlands including the Tibetan Plateau and arid regions of Asia. An increase in occurrence of extreme weather events including heat wave and intense precipitation events is projected in South Asia, along with an increase in the interannual variability of daily precipitation in the Asian summer monsoon. The projected impacts of climate change in South Asia will vary across sectors, locations and populations. Temperature rise will negatively impact crop yields in tropical parts of South Asia where these crops are already being grown close to their temperature tolerance threshold. While direct impacts are associated with rise in temperatures, indirect impacts due to water availability and changing soil moisture status and pest and disease incidence are likely to be felt. The most significant impacts are likely to be borne by small-holder rainfed farmers who constitute the majority of farmers in this region and possess low financial and technical capacity to adapt to climate variability and change. The projected impacts of climate change in different parts of South Asia are described. The coping capacity of the rural poor, especially in the marginal areas, is low and there is a need to mainstream the good practices for adaptation to climate change into sustainable development planning in the region. Improved understanding of the climate change impacts, vulnerability and the adaptation practices to cope with climate change could help this process.