Estimation of Uncertainty on Greenhouse Gas Emission in the Agriculture Sector

ABSTRACT : Analysis and evaluation of uncertainty is adopting the advanced methodology among the methods for greenhouse gas emission assessment that was defined in GPS2000 (Good practice guideline 2000) and GPG-LULUCF (GPG Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry). In 2006 IPCC guideline, two approaches are suggested to explain the uncertainty for each section with a national net emission and a prediction value on uncertainty as follows; 1) Spread sheet calculation based on the error propagation algorithm that was simplified with some assumptions, and 2) Monte carlo simulation that can be utilized in general purposes. There are few researches on the agricultural field including greenhouse gas emission that is generated from livestock and cultivation lands due to lack of information for statistic data, emission coefficient, and complicated emission formula. The main objective of this study is to suggest an evaluation method for the uncertainty of greenhouse gas emission in agricultural field by means of intercomparison of the prediction value on uncertainties which were estimated by spread sheet calculation and monte carlo simulation. A statistic analysis for probability density function for uncertainty of emission rate was carried out by targeting livestock intestinal fermentation, excrements treatment, and direct/indirect emission from agricultural lands and rice cultivation. It was suggested to minimize uncertainty by means of extraction of emission coefficient according to each targeting section.