It's not only the economy, stupid! Good governance matters in elections

This paper examines the impact of good governance in elections compared to the role of the economy. The latter is considered the key factor in electoral survival, while governance issues are rarely included in politicians' discourse or campaigning strategies. Using the ParlGov data and the ICRG indicators for 160 elections, the analysis shows that good governance matters, but mainly for developing countries. Economic growth is an important electoral topic in most of the elections, but its effect varies systematically across contexts. The impact of each good governance and the economy get weaker as the other worsens, and these conditional effects are moderated by the level of economic development.

[1]  James W. Hardin,et al.  The Simulation Extrapolation Method for Fitting Generalized Linear Models with Additive Measurement Error , 2003 .

[2]  Holger Becker,et al.  It's the economy... , 2009, Lab on a chip.

[3]  Eunjung Choi,et al.  Political corruption, economic performance, and electoral outcomes: a cross-national analysis , 2010 .

[4]  Gabriel S. Lenz,et al.  Substituting the End for the Whole: Why Voters Respond Primarily to the Election‐Year Economy , 2014 .

[5]  Bo Rothstein,et al.  Quality of Government: What You Get , 2009 .

[6]  Michael Marsh Electoral Context , 2001 .

[7]  Jason Wittenberg,et al.  Making the Most Of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation , 2000 .

[8]  Daniel A. Kaufmann,et al.  Governance Indicators: Where are We, Where Should We Be Going? , 2007 .

[9]  G. Kramer Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964 , 1971, American Political Science Review.

[10]  K. Slomczynski,et al.  Voters' perceptions of government performance and attributions of responsibility: Electoral control in Poland , 2011 .

[11]  David J. Samuels,et al.  Electoral Accountability and the Variety of Democratic Regimes , 2007, British Journal of Political Science.

[12]  Donald E. Stokes,et al.  Spatial Models of Party Competition , 1963, American Political Science Review.

[13]  R. Johnston,et al.  Dimensions of Retrospective Voting , 2001 .

[14]  Tony Bovaird,et al.  Evaluating the Quality of Public Governance: Indicators, Models and Methodologies , 2003 .

[15]  Daniel A. Kaufmann,et al.  Growth and Governance: A Reply , 2007, The Journal of Politics.

[16]  J. Bartle Partisanship, Performance and Personality , 2003 .

[17]  R. Johnston Performance Politics and the British Voter , 2011 .

[18]  Joshua A. Tucker Regional Economic Voting: Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, 1990–1999 , 2006 .

[19]  Charles Prysby,et al.  Political Behavior and the Local Context , 1991 .

[20]  A. Healy,et al.  Myopic Voters and Natural Disaster Policy , 2009, American Political Science Review.

[21]  M. Lewis-Beck,et al.  Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes , 2000 .

[22]  David Sanders,et al.  Television News, Economic Perceptions and Political Preferences in Britain, 1997–2001 , 2004 .

[23]  Mathew D. McCubbins,et al.  The Democratic Dilemma: Can Citizens Learn What They Need to Know? , 1998 .

[24]  J KurtzMarcus,et al.  Growth and Governance: Models, Measures, and Mechanisms , 2015 .

[25]  D. Bok The Politics of Happiness: What Government Can Learn from the New Research on Well-Being , 2010 .

[26]  Daniel Zizumbo-Colunga,et al.  The Varying Political Toll of Concerns About Corruption in Good Versus Bad Economic Times , 2013 .

[27]  Joshua A. Tucker,et al.  The economy, corruption, and the vote: Evidence from experiments in Sweden and Moldova , 2013 .

[28]  H. Clarke,et al.  Hard choices in hard times: Valence voting in Germany (2009) , 2013 .

[29]  Morris P. Fiorina,et al.  Retrospective voting in American national elections , 1981 .

[30]  Guy D. Whitten,et al.  A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context , 1993 .

[31]  Tse-min Lin The Historical Significance of Economic Voting, 1872–1996 , 1999, Social Science History.

[32]  J. R. Alford,et al.  The Electoral Impact of Economic Conditions: Who is Held Responsible? , 1981 .

[33]  Tse-min Lin,et al.  Political Corruption and Presidential Elections, 1929-1992 , 1995, The Journal of Politics.

[34]  Shanta Devarajan Two Comments on “Governance Indicators: Where Are We, Where Should We Be Going?” by Daniel Kaufmann and Aart Kraay , 2007 .

[35]  Daniel A. Kaufmann,et al.  Growth and Governance: A Rejoinder , 2007, The Journal of Politics.

[36]  H. Clarke,et al.  Valence politics and electoral choice in a new democracy: The case of Taiwan , 2013 .

[37]  Andrew Reeves,et al.  Make It Rain? Retrospection and the Attentive Electorate in the Context of Natural Disasters , 2011 .

[38]  André Blais,et al.  Issue Importance and Performance Voting , 2003 .

[39]  J. Helliwell Well-Being, Social Capital and Public Policy: What's New? , 2005 .

[40]  G. G. Ryzin Citizen perceptions of road smoothness: evidence from New York with implications for comparative performance measurement , 2008 .

[41]  P. John,et al.  Public Management at the Ballot Box: Performance Information and Electoral Support for Incumbent English Local Governments , 2006 .

[42]  J. Oliver,et al.  Vote Choice in Suburban Elections , 2007, American Political Science Review.

[43]  M. Singer Who Says “It’s the Economy”? Cross-National and Cross-Individual Variation in the Salience of Economic Performance , 2011 .

[44]  S. Welch,et al.  The Effects of Charges of Corruption on Voting Behavior in Congressional Elections, 1982-1990 , 1980, The Journal of Politics.

[45]  William D. Berry,et al.  Improving Tests of Theories Positing Interaction , 2012 .

[46]  George Y. Bizer,et al.  Exploring the structure of strength-related attitude features: the relation between attitude importance and attitude accessibility. , 2001, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[47]  M. Singer When do voters actually think “It’s the Economy”? Evidence from the 2008 presidential campaign , 2011 .

[48]  Christopher Wlezien,et al.  On the salience of political issues: The problem with ‘most important problem’ ☆ , 2005 .

[49]  R. Parks Linking Objective and Subjective Measures of Performance , 1984 .

[50]  David R. Jones,et al.  The Responsible Party Government Model in House and Senate Elections , 2004 .

[51]  Robert S. Erikson,et al.  The Macro Polity , 2001 .

[52]  S. Banducci,et al.  Clarity of responsibility: How government cohesion conditions performance voting , 2013 .

[53]  Randolph M. Siverson,et al.  War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability , 1995, American Political Science Review.

[54]  Carole J. Wilson,et al.  Why Do Corrupt Governments Maintain Public Support? , 2007 .

[55]  The Effects of Charges of Corruption on Voting Behavior in Congressional Elections, 1982-1990 , 1997, The Journal of Politics.

[56]  D. Stolle,et al.  The State and Social Capital: An Institutional Theory of Generalized Trust , 2008 .

[57]  David Swindell,et al.  Linking Citizen Satisfaction Data to Performance Measures: A Preliminary Evaluation , 2000 .

[58]  George Alexander Boyne,et al.  Democracy and Government Performance: Holding Incumbents Accountable in English Local Governments* , 2009, The Journal of Politics.

[59]  J. Austin Ranney The Doctrine of Responsible Party Government, Its Origins and Present State. , 1982 .

[60]  Brent R. Moulton Random group effects and the precision of regression estimates , 1986 .

[61]  Toke S. Aidt Economic voting and information , 2000 .

[62]  Merilee S. Grindle,et al.  Good Enough Governance Revisited , 2007 .

[63]  Jon A. Krosnick,et al.  Government policy and citizen passion: A study of issue publics in contemporary America , 1990 .

[64]  Jeffrey M. Wooldridge,et al.  Cluster-Sample Methods in Applied Econometrics , 2003 .