Shaping global environmental decisions using socio-ecological models.

One of the most ambitious ecological studies of the past few decades was the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), which examined the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being. The MA developed global ecological scenarios as a process to inform policy options, despite enormous uncertainties. These scenarios were based on an interlocking suite of models that forecast the future. Following the recent completion and publication of the MA, there is now movement towards making the value of ecosystem services an integral part of key policy decisions. Here, we review the MA approach and suggest areas where immediate progress can be made to increase the likelihood that decision-makers will embrace the vision of assessments such as the MA.

[1]  Quasi-steady infiltration rates of highly permeable tropical moist savannah soils in relation to landuse and pore size distribution , 1997 .

[2]  P. Döll,et al.  A global hydrological model for deriving water availability indicators: model tuning and validation , 2003 .

[3]  I. C. Prentice,et al.  A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere‐biosphere system , 2005 .

[4]  N. Gotelli,et al.  Island biogeographic theory and conservation practice: Species-area or specious-area relationships? , 1984 .

[5]  Joseph Alcamo,et al.  Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system: Part 1: Model description and testing , 1994 .

[6]  Ross E. McMurtrie,et al.  Does conversion of forest to agricultural land change soil carbon and nitrogen? a review of the literature , 2002 .

[7]  T. Malthus.  Essay on the Principle of Population , 2001 .

[8]  Roy M. Anderson,et al.  Discussion: The Kermack-McKendrick epidemic threshold theorem , 1991, Bulletin of mathematical biology.

[9]  Millenium Ecosystem Assessment.  Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis , 2005 .

[10]  M. Rosegrant,et al.  Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment , 1995 .

[11]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Ecology for transformation. , 2006, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[12]  Mark E.J. Woolhouse,et al.  Host Range and Emerging and Reemerging Pathogens , 2005, Emerging infectious diseases.

[13]  R. Paine,et al.  Marine rocky shores and community ecology : an experimentalist's perspective , 1995 .

[14]  Erik Stokstad.  Will Malthus Continue to Be Wrong? , 2005, Science.

[15]  S. Schneider,et al.  Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California. , 2004, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[16]  A. Brash.  The history of avian extinction and forest conversion on Puerto Rico , 1987 .

[17]  P. Döll,et al.  Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model of water use and availability , 2003 .

[18]  R. Evenson,et al.  Assessing the Impact of the Green Revolution, 1960 to 2000 , 2003, Science.

[19]  Julia C. Allen.  Soil Response to Forest Clearing in the United States and the Tropics: Geological and Biological Factors , 1985 .

[20]  B. Walker,et al.  Thresholds in Ecological and Social–Ecological Systems: a Developing Database , 2004 .