The integration of social concerns into electricity power planning : a combined delphi and AHP approach

The increasing acceptance of the principle of sustainable development has been a major driving force towards new approaches to energy planning. This is a complex process involving multiple and conflicting objectives, in which many agents were able to influence decisions. The integration of environmental, social and economic issues in decision making, although fundamental, is not an easy task, and tradeoffs must be made. The increasing importance of social aspects adds additional complexity to the traditional models that must now deal with variables recognizably difficult to measure in a quantitative scale. This study explores the issue of the social impact, as a fundamental aspect of the electricity planning process, aiming to give a measurable interpretation of the expected social impact of future electricity scenarios. A structured methodology, based on a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Delphi process, is proposed. The methodology is applied for the social evaluation of future electricity scenarios in Portugal, resulting in the elicitation and assignment of average social impact values for these scenarios. The proposed tool offers guidance to decision makers and presents a clear path to explicitly recognise and integrate the social preferences into electricity planning models.