A New Approach for Occupational Risk Evaluation of Natural Gas Pipeline Construction with Extended Cumulative Prospect Theory

The natural gas pipeline construction project possesses different kinds of highly risky occupational hazards because of its complex and dynamic surrounding environments. Occupational risk evaluation is one of the most effective techniques to reduce and manage these risks and hazards. There are various kinds of techniques to address the problem of occupational risk evaluation, however, most of these techniques overlook the decision-makers’ different risk perceptions under the different probability of risk occurrence. In addition, current occupational risk evaluation approaches are unable to cope with the risk analysis problem including correlated risk parameters within the random and fuzzy context. Aiming to compensate for these limitations, we present an extended occupational risk evaluation method for a natural gas pipeline construction project by integrating the cloud model, cumulative prospect theory, and Bonferroni mean operator. In this framework, four risk parameters in the safety and critical effect analysis (SCEA) are introduced to rate the risk of each occupational hazard. Then, the normal cloud model is utilized to transform the linguistic risk evaluation information into quantitative data, which can model the uncertainty of randomness and fuzziness in the risk evaluation process. Next, the extended cumulative prospect theory based on Bonferroni mean operator is constructed to derive the risk magnitude of each hazard considering the decision maker’s different risk perception and interactions among risk parameters. Finally, the proposed extended occupational risk evaluation method is tested by the risk evaluation of the concrete coating procedure. The sensitivity and comparison analyses are led to validate the rationality and reliability of the proposed occupational risk evaluation method.