Internet Trafc Forecasting using Neural Networks

o The forecast of Internet trafc is an important is- sue that has received few attention from the computer networks eld. By improving this task, efcient trafc engineering and anomaly detection tools can be created, resulting in economic gains from better resource management. This paper presents a Neural Network Ensemble (NNE) for the prediction of TCP/IP trafc using a Time Series Forecasting (TSF) point of view. Several experiments were devised by considering real-world data from two large Internet Service Providers. In addition, different time scales (e.g. every ve minutes and hourly) and forecasting horizons were analyzed. Overall, the NNE approach is competitive when compared with other TSF methods (e.g. Holt-Winters and ARIMA).

[1]  Gwilym M. Jenkins,et al.  Time series analysis, forecasting and control , 1972 .

[2]  Konstantina Papagiannaki,et al.  Long-term forecasting of Internet backbone traffic , 2005, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks.

[3]  Peter R. Winters,et al.  Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages , 1960 .

[4]  Paulo Cortez,et al.  A Neural Network Based Forecasting System , 1995 .

[5]  Martin A. Riedmiller,et al.  Advanced supervised learning in multi-layer perceptrons — From backpropagation to adaptive learning algorithms , 1994 .

[6]  José Neves,et al.  Evolving Time Series Forecasting ARMA Models , 2004, J. Heuristics.

[7]  George E. P. Box,et al.  Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control , 1977 .

[8]  P. McSharry,et al.  A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead , 2006 .

[9]  Miguel Rocha,et al.  Time Series Forecasting by Evolutionary Neural Networks , 2005 .

[10]  Qi He,et al.  On the predictability of large transfer TCP throughput , 2005, SIGCOMM '05.

[11]  Paulo Cortez,et al.  Particle swarms for feedforward neural network training , 2002, Proceedings of the 2002 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks. IJCNN'02 (Cat. No.02CH37290).

[12]  John Francis Kros,et al.  Data mining and the impact of missing data , 2003, Ind. Manag. Data Syst..

[13]  Steven C. Wheelwright,et al.  Forecasting methods and applications. , 1979 .

[14]  Symeon Papavassiliou,et al.  Detecting Network Attacks in the Internet via Statistical Network Traffic Normality Prediction , 2004, Journal of Network and Systems Management.

[15]  J. W. Taylor,et al.  Short-term electricity demand forecasting using double seasonal exponential smoothing , 2003, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[16]  Balachander Krishnamurthy,et al.  Sketch-based change detection: methods, evaluation, and applications , 2003, IMC '03.