Number of dementia sufferers in Europe between the years 2000 and 2050

Abstract Several authors have pointed out that in the next few decades dementia will affect a considerably increasing number of the elderly. To our knowledge there exist no calculations of the number of demented persons for the whole European region. We made calculations on the number of dementia cases for the period 2000–2050 based on the population projections of the United Nations. For this purpose, we used the results of several meta-analyses of epidemiological studies. The number of prevalent dementia cases in the year 2000 was 7.1 million. Within the next 50 years, this number will rise to about 16.2 million dementia sufferers. The number of new dementia cases per year will increase from about 1.9 million in the year 2000 to about 4.1 million in the year 2050. Contrarily, the working-age population will considerably decrease during the next 50 years. In the year 2000, 7.1 million dementia cases faced 493 million persons in working-age. This equals a ratio of 69.4 persons in working-age per one demented person. Until the year 2050, this ratio will decrease to only 21.1. Thus, the financial and emotional burden placed by dementia on the working-age population will markedly rise.

[1]  W. McDonald,et al.  Inverse association of anti‐inflammatory treatments and Alzheimer's disease , 1994, Neurology.

[2]  J. Bond,et al.  Costs of dementia in England and Wales in the 21st century , 2001, British Journal of Psychiatry.

[3]  L. Corder,et al.  Cost of illness due to dementia in Sweden , 1997, International journal of geriatric psychiatry.

[4]  L. Beckett,et al.  Annual Incidence of Alzheimer Disease in the United States Projected to the Years 2000 Through 2050 , 2001, Alzheimer disease and associated disorders.

[5]  Sube Banerjee,et al.  EUROCARE: a cross‐national study of co‐resident spouse carers for people with Alzheimer's disease: I—factors associated with carer burden , 1999, International journal of geriatric psychiatry.

[6]  V. Henderson,et al.  Estrogen replacement therapy and risk of Alzheimer disease. , 1996, Archives of internal medicine.

[7]  A. Hofman,et al.  Incidence of dementia and major subtypes in Europe: A collaborative study of population-based cohorts. Neurologic Diseases in the Elderly Research Group. , 2000, Neurology.

[8]  A. Hofman,et al.  Prevalence of dementia and major subtypes in Europe: A collaborative study of population-based cohorts. Neurologic Diseases in the Elderly Research Group. , 2000, Neurology.

[9]  H. Bickel,et al.  Demenzsyndrom und Alzheimer Krankheit: Eine Schätzung des Krankenbestandes und der jährlichen Neuerkrankungen in Deutschland , 2000 .

[10]  A. Korten,et al.  The prevalence of dementia: A quantitative integration of the literature , 1987, Acta psychiatrica Scandinavica.

[11]  P. Robert,et al.  Clinical management of agitation in the elderly with tiapride , 2001, European Psychiatry.

[12]  A Hofman,et al.  The prevalence of dementia in Europe: a collaborative study of 1980-1990 findings. Eurodem Prevalence Research Group. , 1991, International journal of epidemiology.

[13]  A. Hofman,et al.  Rates and risk factors for dementia and Alzheimer’s disease , 1999, Neurology.

[14]  D. Jolley,et al.  Cost benefits of a medically supervised day treatment program for patients with Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia , 1989 .

[15]  K. Hall,et al.  The relationships between age, sex, and the incidence of dementia and Alzheimer disease: a meta-analysis. , 1998, Archives of general psychiatry.

[16]  V Hachinski,et al.  The effect of different diagnostic criteria on the prevalence of dementia. , 1997, The New England journal of medicine.

[17]  M. Prince The need for research on dementia in developing countries , 1997, Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH.

[18]  B. Reisberg,et al.  Addition of a frequency-weighted score to the Behavioral Pathology in Alzheimer’s Disease Rating Scale: the BEHAVE-AD-FW: methodology and reliability , 2001, European Psychiatry.

[19]  A. Hofman,et al.  Frequency and distribution of Alzheimer's disease in Europe: A collaborative study of 1980–1990 prevalence findings , 1991, Annals of neurology.

[20]  D. Kildea,et al.  Is senile dementia "age-related" or "ageing-related"? —evidence from meta-analysis of dementia prevalence in the oldest old , 1995, The Lancet.