Forecasting Snowmelt-Induced Flooding Using GRACE Satellite Data: A Case Study for the Red River Watershed

Abstract. Flood forecasting of the spring freshet for cold-region watersheds where the discharge is predominately governed by snowpack accumulation and melting remains a challenge. A cold-region flood forecasting model is developed, using data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. The model forecasts flood by simulating peak surface runoff from snowmelt and the corresponding baseflow from groundwater discharge. Surface runoff is predicted from snowmelt, using a temperature index model. Baseflow is predicted, using a first order differential equation model. Streamflow measurement is used for model calibration. The model was applied to the Red River watershed, a USA–Canada transboundary basin located in central North America. The predicted flood compares well with the observed values at a downstream hydrometric station (r = 0.95). The result also reveals a 2-week hysteresis between the maximum snowmelt and the peak streamflow observed at the station. The model is relatively simple and needs only GRACE and temperature inputs for flood forecasting. It can be readily applied to other cold-region basins after simple calibration and could be particularly useful in regions with minimal data. For potential flood warning, the model also has the advantage of a much longer lead time than most traditional flood forecasting approaches.

[1]  M. Hutchinson,et al.  Development and Testing of Canada-Wide Interpolated Spatial Models of Daily Minimum–Maximum Temperature and Precipitation for 1961–2003 , 2008 .

[2]  J. Famiglietti,et al.  Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India , 2009, Nature.

[3]  Yinsuo Zhang,et al.  Impact of snow cover on soil temperature and its simulation in a boreal aspen forest , 2008 .

[4]  W. Tad Pfeffer,et al.  Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise , 2012, Nature.

[5]  S. Yirdaw,et al.  GRACE satellite observations of terrestrial moisture changes for drought characterization in the Canadian Prairie , 2008 .

[6]  Dennis P. Lettenmaier,et al.  Evaluation of the snow‐covered area data product from MODIS , 2003 .

[7]  Slobodan P. Simonovic,et al.  System dynamics model for predicting floods from snowmelt in North American prairie watersheds , 2002 .

[8]  Daqing Yang,et al.  Streamflow response to seasonal snow cover mass changes over large Siberian watersheds , 2007 .

[9]  T. Andrew Black,et al.  Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group 8-2015 Comparing Evapotranspiration from Eddy Covariance Measurements , Water Budgets , Remote Sensing , and Land Surface Models over Canada , 2018 .

[10]  R. Armstrong,et al.  Yukon River streamflow response to seasonal snow cover changes , 2009 .

[11]  Paul R. Houser,et al.  Factors affecting remotely sensed snow water equivalent uncertainty , 2005 .

[12]  Alfonso Rivera,et al.  Assessment of water budget for sixteen large drainage basins in Canada , 2014 .

[13]  W. Rannie,et al.  The 1997 flood event in the Red River basin: Causes, assessment and damages , 2016 .

[14]  Mohammad J. Tourian,et al.  Characterization of runoff‐storage relationships by satellite gravimetry and remote sensing , 2014 .

[15]  F. Landerer,et al.  Accuracy of scaled GRACE terrestrial water storage estimates , 2012 .

[16]  Brian F. Thomas,et al.  River basin flood potential inferred using GRACE gravity observations at several months lead time , 2014 .

[17]  A. Barr,et al.  Measuring water accumulation rates using GRACE data in areas experiencing glacial isostatic adjustment: The Nelson River basin , 2013 .

[18]  Carrie M. Vuyovich,et al.  Comparison of passive microwave and modeled estimates of total watershed SWE in the continental United States , 2014 .

[19]  Daqing Yang,et al.  Long‐term water budget imbalances and error sources for cold region drainage basins , 2015 .

[20]  Mirza M. Billah,et al.  A methodology for evaluating evapotranspiration estimates at the watershed-scale using GRACE , 2015 .

[21]  J. Famiglietti,et al.  GRACE storage-streamflow hystereses reveal the dynamics of regional watersheds , 2014 .

[22]  Dorothy K. Hall,et al.  Intercomparison of satellite-derived snow-cover maps , 2000, Annals of Glaciology.

[23]  M. Mccabe,et al.  Closing the terrestrial water budget from satellite remote sensing , 2009 .

[24]  Guillaume Ramillien,et al.  Detection of Continental Hydrology and Glaciology Signals from GRACE: A Review , 2008 .

[25]  Günter Blöschl,et al.  Spatio‐temporal combination of MODIS images – potential for snow cover mapping , 2008 .

[26]  B. Scanlon,et al.  GRACE satellite observed hydrological controls on interannual and seasonal variability in surface greenness over mainland Australia , 2014 .

[27]  Robert M. Hirsch,et al.  Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO2 levels? , 2012 .

[28]  N. DiGirolamo,et al.  MODIS snow-cover products , 2002 .

[29]  James S. Famiglietti,et al.  GRACE-Based Estimates of Terrestrial Freshwater Discharge from Basin to Continental Scales , 2007 .

[30]  K. Lindenschmidt,et al.  Ice Jam Modelling of the Lower Red River , 2012 .

[31]  Junhua Li,et al.  A national‐scale assessment of long‐term water budget closures for Canada's watersheds , 2014 .

[32]  Alexander P. Trishchenko,et al.  Simulation of canopy radiation transfer and surface albedo in the EALCO model , 2007 .

[33]  Shusen Wang,et al.  Simulation of Evapotranspiration and Its Response to Plant Water and CO2Transfer Dynamics , 2008 .

[34]  Yi Luo,et al.  Spatial and seasonal variations in evapotranspiration over Canada's landmass , 2013 .

[35]  J. Famiglietti,et al.  Global terrestrial water storage capacity and flood potential using GRACE , 2009 .

[36]  S. Swenson,et al.  Satellites measure recent rates of groundwater depletion in California's Central Valley , 2011 .

[37]  J. Wahr,et al.  Computations of the viscoelastic response of a 3-D compressible Earth to surface loading: an application to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in Antarctica and Canada , 2012 .

[38]  S. Swenson,et al.  Accuracy of GRACE mass estimates , 2006 .

[39]  S. Swenson,et al.  Post‐processing removal of correlated errors in GRACE data , 2006 .

[40]  J. Vose,et al.  Continental U.S. streamflow trends from 1940 to 2009 and their relationships with watershed spatial characteristics , 2015 .

[41]  B. Scanlon,et al.  Uncertainty in evapotranspiration from land surface modeling, remote sensing, and GRACE satellites , 2014 .

[42]  J. Famiglietti,et al.  A GRACE‐based water storage deficit approach for hydrological drought characterization , 2014 .

[43]  B. Scanlon,et al.  GRACE satellite monitoring of large depletion in water storage in response to the 2011 drought in Texas , 2013 .

[44]  A. Sahoo,et al.  Multisource estimation of long-term terrestrial water budget for major global river basins , 2012 .