A Safety Evaluation Model for Dangerous Goods Transportation Based on Fuzzy Petri Nets and Its Application

Aiming at the safety monitoring problem of modern dangerous goods transportation vehicle systems,the transportation costs,accident risk,disaster hazard,remedial capacity are used as the major factors in transportation safety evaluation to establish levels of index systems for safety evaluation,the safety evaluation model based on fuzzy Petri nets(FPN) is put forward for dangerous goods transportation.First,FPN is presented by creating the mapping relationships between FPN and its evaluation system,and fuzzy reasoning algorithm is given based on the FPN model.Second,with AHP method,qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are combined and used to evaluate and analyze the safety question.Finally,an implementation method for the safety evaluation model is given based on geographic information system(ArcGIS) and used in the monitoring system of dangerous goods transportation safety.The mathematical properties and the easily implemented features of FPN make the safety evaluation model contribute to the formation,quantification and dynamic decision-making of transportation safety policy.An application of the safety monitoring system of dangerous goods transportation vehicles indicates that the model,reasoning algorithm and its implementation method are all feasible and practical.