Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments.

People tend to hold overly favorable views of their abilities in many social and intellectual domains. The authors suggest that this overestimation occurs, in part, because people who are unskilled in these domains suffer a dual burden: Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it. Across 4 studies, the authors found that participants scoring in the bottom quartile on tests of humor, grammar, and logic grossly overestimated their test performance and ability. Although their test scores put them in the 12th percentile, they estimated themselves to be in the 62nd. Several analyses linked this miscalibration to deficits in metacognitive skill, or the capacity to distinguish accuracy from error. Paradoxically, improving the skills of participants, and thus increasing their metacognitive competence, helped them recognize the limitations of their abilities.

[1]  L. Festinger A Theory of Social Comparison Processes , 1954 .

[2]  E. Goffman On face-work; an analysis of ritual elements in social interaction. , 1955, Psychiatry.

[3]  B. Foss New Horizons in Psychology 1 , 1966 .

[4]  On the relationship between estimate of ability and driver qualification. , 1971 .

[5]  H. H. Blumbero Communication of interpersonal evaluations , 1973 .

[6]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[7]  Sidney Rosen,et al.  The Reluctance to Transmit Bad News , 1975 .

[8]  Laurie Larwood,et al.  Managerial myopia: Self-serving biases in organizational planning. , 1977 .

[9]  S. Lichtenstein,et al.  Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?*1 , 1977 .

[10]  L. Ross,et al.  The “false consensus effect”: An egocentric bias in social perception and attribution processes , 1977 .

[11]  K. Cross Not can, but will college teaching be improved? , 1977 .

[12]  C. R. Snyder,et al.  Acceptance of personality interpretations: the "Barnum Effect" and beyond. , 1977, Journal of consulting and clinical psychology.

[13]  M. Chi Knowledge structures and memory development. , 1978 .

[14]  R. Siegler Children's Thinking : What Develops? , 1978 .

[15]  Daryl J. Bem,et al.  Template matching: A proposal for probing the ecological validity of experimental settings in social psychology. , 1979 .

[16]  J. Shaughnessy,et al.  Confidence-Judgment Accuracy as a Predictor of Test Performance. , 1979 .

[17]  N. Weinstein Unrealistic optimism about future life events , 1980 .

[18]  J. Darley,et al.  Expectancy confirmation processes arising in the social interaction sequence. , 1980 .

[19]  Michelene T. H. Chi,et al.  Expertise in Problem Solving. , 1981 .

[20]  R. Felson Ambiguity and bias in the self-concept. , 1981 .

[21]  R. Moreland,et al.  Academic Achievement and Self-Evaluations of Academic Performance. , 1981 .

[22]  R. Sternberg Advances in the psychology of human intelligence , 1982 .

[23]  Neil D. Weinstein,et al.  Egocentrism as a Source of Unrealistic Optimism , 1982 .

[24]  Hillel J. Einhorn,et al.  Judgment under uncertainty: Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making , 1982 .

[25]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980 , 1982 .

[26]  C. R. Snyder,et al.  Excuses: Masquerades in Search of Grace , 1985 .

[27]  M. Alicke Global self-evaluation as determined by the desirability and controllability of trait adjectives. , 1985 .

[28]  Jonathon D. Brown,et al.  Evaluations of Self and Others: Self-Enhancement Biases in Social Judgments , 1986 .

[29]  K. Holyoak,et al.  Pragmatic versus syntactic approaches to training deductive reasoning , 1986, Cognitive Psychology.

[30]  D. A. Kenny,et al.  The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. , 1986, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[31]  Shelley E. Taylor,et al.  Illusion and well-being: a social psychological perspective on mental health. , 1988, Psychological bulletin.

[32]  J. R. Thomas,et al.  Relation of knowledge and performance in boys' tennis: age and expertise. , 1989, Journal of experimental child psychology.

[33]  D. Dunning,et al.  Ambiguity and self-evaluation: the role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability , 1989 .

[34]  L. Ross,et al.  Overconfident prediction of future actions and outcomes by self and others. , 1990, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[35]  L. Ross,et al.  The overconfidence effect in social prediction. , 1990, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[36]  Z. Kunda,et al.  Motivated recruitment of autobiographical memories. , 1990, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[37]  G. Gigerenzer,et al.  Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence. , 1991, Psychological review.

[38]  D. Dunning,et al.  Self-serving prototypes of social categories. , 1991, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[39]  G. Gigerenzer How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases” , 1991 .

[40]  Jonathon D. Brown,et al.  Coming to terms with failure: Private self-enhancement and public self-effacement. , 1992 .

[41]  David Dunning,et al.  Egocentric Definitions of Traits and Abilities in Social Judgment , 1992 .

[42]  Randy Thornhill,et al.  Human facial beauty , 1993, Human nature.

[43]  R H Maki,et al.  The relationship between comprehension and metacomprehension ability , 1994, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

[44]  Beverly I. Fagot,et al.  Activity Level in Young Children: Cross-Age Stability, Situational Influences, Correlates with Temperament and the Perception of Problem Behaviors. , 1994 .

[45]  A. Damasio Descartes' error: emotion, reason, and the human brain. avon books , 1994 .

[46]  Sean A. Spence,et al.  Descartes' Error: Emotion, Reason and the Human Brain , 1995 .

[47]  Frank J. Sinkavich Performance and metamemory: Do students know what they don't know? , 1995 .

[48]  D T Gilbert,et al.  When comparisons arise. , 1995, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[49]  M. L. Klotz,et al.  Personal contact, individuation, and the better-than-average effect. , 1995 .

[50]  D. Sarel,et al.  Nonunique invulnerability : Singular versus distributional probabilities and unrealistic optimism in comparative risk judgments , 1996 .

[51]  C. Klin,et al.  Knowing that you don't know: metamemory and discourse processing. , 1997, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[52]  S. Tobias,et al.  The ability to estimate knowledge and performance in college: A metacognitive analysis , 1998 .

[53]  D. Dunning,et al.  The More Rational Side of Self-Serving Prototypes: The Effects of Success and Failure Performance Feedback , 1998 .

[54]  J. Metcalfe Cognitive Optimism: Self-Deception or Memory-Based Processing Heuristics? , 1998, Personality and social psychology review : an official journal of the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

[55]  J. Kruger Lake Wobegon be gone! The "below-average effect" and the egocentric nature of comparative ability judgments. , 1999, Journal of personality and social psychology.