The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model Description for Version 3

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) supports analysis of long-term challenges and opportunities for food, agriculture, and natural resources at global and regional scales. IMPACT is continually being updated and improved to better inform the choices that decisionmakers face today. This document describes the latest version of the model. IMPACT version 3 expands the geographic and commodity scope of the model in response to desires expressed by researchers and policymakers to address more complex questions involving climate change, food security, and economic development into the future. IMPACT 3 is an integrated modeling system that links information from climate models (Earth System Models), crop simulation models (for example, Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer), and water models linked to a core global, partial equilibrium, multimarket model focused on the agriculture sector. This model system supports longer-term scenario analysis through the integration of these multidisciplinary modules to provide researchers and policymakers with a flexible tool to assess and compare the potential effects of changes in biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.

[1]  S. Robinson,et al.  Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture: Ex Ante Analysis of Promising and Alternative Crop Technologies Using DSSAT and IMPACT , 2015 .

[2]  P. Thornton,et al.  Generating characteristic daily weather data using downscaled climate model data from the IPCC's fourth assessment , 2009 .

[3]  Toshihiko Masui,et al.  GLOBAL GHG EMISSION SCENARIOS UNDER GHG CONCENTRATION STABILIZATION TARGETS , 2008 .

[4]  M. Rosegrant,et al.  The future role of agriculture in the Arab region’s food security , 2011, Food Security.

[5]  M. Rosegrant,et al.  Alternative futures for world cereal and meat consumption , 1999, Proceedings of the Nutrition Society.

[6]  N. Nakicenovic,et al.  Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization , 2007 .

[7]  Subhash Chander,et al.  A simple dated water-production function for use in irrigated agriculture , 1988 .

[8]  Bas Eickhout,et al.  Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs , 2007 .

[9]  Gerald C. Nelson,et al.  West African agriculture and climate change: a comprehensive analysis , 2012 .

[10]  J. Edmonds,et al.  Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations , 2007 .

[11]  Zhao Ren-jun,et al.  The Xinanjiang model applied in China , 1992 .

[12]  M. Rosegrant International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) Model Description , 2012 .

[13]  Nan Li,et al.  World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision: Estimation and projection methodology , 2011 .

[14]  Petra Döll,et al.  A Pilot Global Assessment of Environmental Water Requirements and Scarcity , 2004 .

[15]  Returns to Investment in Reducing Postharvest Food Losses and Increasing Agricultural Productivity Growth , 2016 .

[16]  H. Steinfeld,et al.  Livestock's long shadow: environmental issues and options. , 2006 .

[17]  T. Wilbanks,et al.  Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[18]  Josef Kallrath,et al.  Algebraic Modeling Systems , 2012 .

[19]  Jennifer Morris,et al.  The MIT EPPA6 Model: Economic Growth, Energy Use, and Food Consumption , 2015 .

[20]  Petr Havlik,et al.  Simulating stakeholder-driven food and climate scenarios for policy development in Africa, Asia and Latin America: A multi-regional synthesis , 2014 .

[21]  K. Ebi International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD) , 2009 .

[22]  James W. Jones,et al.  The DSSAT cropping system model , 2003 .

[23]  P. Thornton,et al.  The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Eastern Africa: four socio-economic scenarios , 2013 .

[24]  E. Lanzi,et al.  Long-term economic growth and environmental pressure: reference scenarios for future global projections , 2012 .

[25]  Dustin Boswell,et al.  The Art of Readable Code , 2011 .

[26]  S. Bony,et al.  Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[27]  Bas Eickhout,et al.  Long-Term Multi-Gas Scenarios to Stabilise Radiative Forcing - Exploring Costs and Benefits Within an Integrated Assessment Framework , 2006 .

[28]  K. Garrett,et al.  Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity: The Role of Agricultural Technologies , 2014 .

[29]  J. Edmonds,et al.  Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy , 2009, Science.

[30]  C. Priestley,et al.  On the Assessment of Surface Heat Flux and Evaporation Using Large-Scale Parameters , 1972 .

[31]  J.C.M. van Meijl,et al.  Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios , 2015 .

[32]  S. Rashid,et al.  Enhancing Food Security in South Sudan: The Role of Public Food Stocks and Cereal Imports , 2015 .

[33]  M. Rosegrant,et al.  Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment , 1995 .

[34]  Huajun Tang,et al.  Chinese Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures , 2014 .

[35]  M. Rosegrant,et al.  Global projections for root and tuber crops to the year 2020. , 2000 .

[36]  W. O. Pruitt,et al.  Crop water requirements , 1997 .

[37]  Jonathan Maack,et al.  Scenario Analysis : A Tool for Task Managers , 2001 .

[38]  Ronald,et al.  GFDL’s ESM2 Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Earth System Models. Part I: Physical Formulation and Baseline Simulation Characteristics , 2012 .

[39]  Wolfgang Lutz,et al.  The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100 , 2017, Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions.

[40]  Van Vuuren Long-term multigas scenarios to stabilise radiative forcing-Exploring costs and benefits within an integrated assessment framework. Multigas mitigation and climate policy , 2006 .

[41]  W. J. Shuttleworth,et al.  Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and Its Use to Assess Global and Regional Reference Crop Evaporation over Land during the Twentieth Century , 2011 .

[42]  South African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures , 2013 .

[43]  Tom M. L. Wigley,et al.  Multi-Gas Forcing Stabilization with Minicam , 2006 .

[44]  S. Robinson,et al.  A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS , 2002 .

[45]  Robert E. Evenson,et al.  Agricultural Research and Productivity Growth in India , 1998 .

[46]  C. Piani,et al.  Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe , 2010 .

[47]  Keywan Riahi,et al.  A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways , 2013, Climatic Change.

[48]  David Laborde Debucquet,et al.  A Picture of Tariff Protection Across the World in 2004 MAcMap-HS6, Version 2 , 2009 .

[49]  Timothy B. Sulser,et al.  Looking ahead: long-term prospects for Africa's agricultural development and food security , 2005 .

[50]  L. S. Pereira,et al.  Crop evapotranspiration : guidelines for computing crop water requirements , 1998 .

[51]  Hans van Vliet,et al.  Software engineering - principles and practice , 1993 .

[52]  A. Janvry,et al.  World development report 2008 : agriculture for development , 2008 .

[53]  James W. Jones,et al.  Integrated description of agricultural field experiments and production: The ICASA Version 2.0 data standards , 2013 .

[54]  C. Müller,et al.  Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling , 2014 .

[55]  G. Nelson,et al.  US Food Security and Climate Change: Agricultural Futures , 2013 .

[56]  P. Kyle,et al.  Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[57]  Ximing Cai,et al.  Water and food to 2025 , 2002 .

[58]  Liangzhi You,et al.  Generating Global Crop Distribution Maps: From Census to Grid , 2014 .

[59]  Lawrence Haddad,et al.  Explaining Child Malnutrition in Developing Countries: A Cross-Country Analysis , 1999 .

[60]  F. Piontek,et al.  A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach , 2013 .

[61]  Jeffrey W. White,et al.  Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Version 4.5 [CD-ROM] , 2012 .

[62]  M. Rosegrant,et al.  The New Normal? A Tighter Global Agricultural Supply and Demand Relation and its Implications for Food Security , 2013 .

[63]  David Seckler,et al.  Integrated water resource systems: Theory and policy implications , 1996 .

[64]  Robert McDougall,et al.  Global trade, assistance, and production : The GTAP 5 Data Base , 2002 .

[65]  Claude B. Courbois,et al.  Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution , 2001 .

[66]  Christoph Schmitz,et al.  Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system , 2014 .

[67]  D. Mason-D’Croz,et al.  Modelling Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture , 2014 .

[68]  S. Walsh Agriculture at a crossroads: Perceptions of Irish Agricultural Sustainability , 2017 .

[69]  C. Fraiture Integrated water and food analysis at the global and basin level. An application of WATERSIM , 2007 .

[70]  K. Riahi,et al.  The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century , 2017 .

[71]  Christoph Schmitz,et al.  Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree , 2014 .

[72]  Toshihiko Masui,et al.  Multi-gas Mitigation Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios Using Aim Global Model , 2006 .

[73]  Eric F. Wood,et al.  A land-surface hydrology parameterization with subgrid variability for general circulation models , 1992 .

[74]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .