Research on Sediment Discharge Variations and Driving Factors in the Tarim River Basin

Sediment discharge is widely regarded as a critical indicator of soil and water loss. The Mann–Kendall (M-K) test was applied to analyze the trends of temperature, precipitation, annual runoff, annual sediment discharge (ASD), and snow cover area proportion (SCAP). Sensitivity coefficient and contribution rate were adopted to assess the sensitivity of ASD to driving factors, and the contribution of driving factors to ASD. The results showed: (1) ASD of the Kaidu River and the Aksu River originating from Tien Shan decreased at rates of 3.8503 × 107 kg per year (p < 0.01) and 47.198 × 107 kg per year, respectively, from 2001 to 2019. The ASD there was also found to be more sensitive to SCAP changes in autumn and winter, respectively. (2) ASD of the Yarkand River and the Yulong Kashgar River originating from the Karakoram Mountains increased at rates of 21.807 × 107 kg per year and 27.774 × 107 kg per year, respectively, during 2001–2019. The ASD there was determined to be more sensitive to annual runoff. (3) In terms of contribution rate, except for the Kaidu River, annual runoff of the other three rivers made the largest contribution. (4) In addition, the proportion of glacial-melt water, slope, glacierization and human activities are also possible factors affecting sediment discharge.

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