Is Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) a feasible option for Sub-Saharan Africa?: Investigating the techno-economic feasibility of CSP in Tanzania

Abstract There is a noticeable shortage of solar energy related information in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially about Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology. The Tanzanian official generation expansion plan till 2040 showed high dependency on coal and gas fired power plants and a negligible role of renewables other than large hydropower. This study investigates the techno-economic feasibility of CSP technology in Tanzania, through modelling Parabolic Trough and Solar Tower CSP technologies using the System Advisor Model developed by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Under debt interest rate of 7%, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for the modelled Solar Tower plants ranges from 11.6 to 12.5 ¢/kWh while for the modelled Parabolic Trough plants ranges from 13.0 to 14.4 ¢/kWh. The LCOE increases significantly from 14.4 ¢/kWh (at 7% debt interest rate, for government-led projects) to 25.9 ¢/kWh (at 18% debt interest rate, for private investors-led projects). The study concludes that the feasibility of CSP in Tanzania is strongly dependent on the financing conditions. Policy mechanisms to de-risk CSP projects' investment through accessing lower debt interest rate are required to ensure the competitiveness of CSP projects in the country.

[1]  Amine Boudghene Stambouli,et al.  The value of dispatchability of CSP plants in the electricity systems of Morocco and Algeria , 2012 .

[2]  J. M. Vindel,et al.  Solar resource mapping in Tanzania : solar modelling report , 2015 .

[3]  Jan Christoph Steckel,et al.  Enabling low-carbon development in poor countries , 2017 .

[4]  Ty Neises,et al.  Advances in CSP Simulation Technology in the System Advisor Model , 2014 .

[5]  Peter Schlyter,et al.  Less is more: Strategic scale site suitability for concentrated solar thermal power in Western Australia , 2012 .

[6]  Gregory J. Kolb,et al.  Power Tower Technology Roadmap and Cost Reduction Plan , 2011 .

[7]  B L Kistler,et al.  A user's manual for DELSOL3: A computer code for calculating the optical performance and optimal system design for solar thermal central receiver plants , 1986 .

[8]  Peter Viebahn,et al.  The potential role of concentrated solar power (CSP) in Africa and Europe - A dynamic assessment of technology development, cost development and life cycle inventories until 2050 , 2011 .

[9]  Aymeric Girard,et al.  2050 LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy) projection for a hybrid PV (photovoltaic)-CSP (concentrated solar power) plant in the Atacama Desert, Chile , 2016 .

[10]  W. Short,et al.  A manual for the economic evaluation of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies , 1995 .

[11]  D. Kearney,et al.  Survey of Thermal Energy Storage for Parabolic Trough Power Plants , 2002 .

[12]  A. Eberhard,et al.  Harnessing African Natural Gas : A New Opportunity for Africa's Energy Agenda? , 2014 .

[13]  Greg C. Glatzmaier,et al.  General Performance Metrics and Applications to Evaluate Various Thermal Energy Storage Technologies , 2012 .

[14]  Craig Turchi,et al.  Parabolic Trough Reference Plant for Cost Modeling with the Solar Advisor Model (SAM) , 2010 .

[15]  Parthiv Kurup,et al.  Parabolic Trough Collector Cost Update for the System Advisor Model (SAM) , 2015 .

[16]  Anders Branth Pedersen,et al.  Solar power potential of Tanzania: Identifying CSP and PV hot spots through a GIS multicriteria decision making analysis , 2017 .

[17]  T. Stuetzle,et al.  Automatic control of a 30 MWe SEGS VI parabolic trough plant , 2004 .

[18]  D. Blake,et al.  Advanced Heat Transfer and Thermal Storage Fluids , 2005 .

[19]  Francesco Casella,et al.  Design of CSP plants with optimally operated thermal storage , 2015 .

[20]  A. Eberhard,et al.  Independent Power Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons from Five Key Countries , 2016 .

[21]  Craig Turchi,et al.  Line-Focus Solar Power Plant Cost Reduction Plan (Milestone Report) , 2010 .

[22]  B. Berg Comparison of Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Various Electricity Generation Sources , 2010 .

[23]  Garvin A. Heath,et al.  Molten Salt Power Tower Cost Model for the System Advisor Model (SAM) , 2013 .

[24]  U. Deichmann,et al.  The Economics of Renewable Energy Expansion in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa , 2010 .

[25]  Craig Turchi,et al.  On the Path to SunShot. Advancing Concentrating Solar Power Technology, Performance, and Dispatchability , 2016 .

[26]  Paul W. Stackhouse,et al.  Modeling the potential for thermal concentrating solar power technologies , 2010 .

[27]  M. Wagner Simulation and predictive performance modeling of utility-scale central receiver system power plants , 2008 .

[28]  Adriano Sciacovelli,et al.  CSP plants with thermocline thermal energy storage and integrated steam generator – Techno-economic modeling and design optimization , 2017 .

[29]  A. Patnode Simulation and Performance Evaluation of Parabolic Trough Solar Power Plants , 2006 .

[30]  R. Forristall,et al.  Heat Transfer Analysis and Modeling of a Parabolic Trough Solar Receiver Implemented in Engineering Equation Solver , 2003 .

[31]  Paul Denholm,et al.  Estimating the Value of Utility-Scale Solar Technologies in California Under a 40% Renewable Portfolio Standard (Report Summary) (Presentation) , 2014 .

[32]  P. Gauché Spatial-temporal model to evaluate the system potential of concentrating solar power towers in South Africa , 2016 .

[33]  Michael J. Wagner,et al.  Technical Manual for the SAM Physical Trough Model , 2011 .

[34]  Nate Blair,et al.  Sensitivity of Concentrating Solar Power Trough Performance, Cost and Financing with Solar Advisor Model , 2008 .

[35]  Craig Turchi,et al.  Estimating the Performance and Economic Value of Multiple Concentrating Solar Power Technologies in a Production Cost Model , 2013 .