Extensive and drastically different alpine lake changes on Asia's high plateaus during the past four decades

Asia's high plateaus are sensitive to climate change and have been experiencing rapid warming over the past few decades. We found 99 new lakes and extensive lake expansion on the Tibetan Plateau during the last four decades, 1970–2013, due to increased precipitation and cryospheric contributions to its water balance. This contrasts with disappearing lakes and drastic shrinkage of lake areas on the adjacent Mongolian Plateau: 208 lakes disappeared, and 75% of the remaining lakes have shrunk. We detected a statistically significant coincidental timing of lake area changes in both plateaus, associated with the climate regime shift that occurred during 1997/1998. This distinct change in 1997/1998 is thought to be driven by large‐scale atmospheric circulation changes in response to climate warming. Our findings reveal that these two adjacent plateaus have been changing in opposite directions in response to climate change. These findings shed light on the complex role of the regional climate and water cycles and provide useful information for ecological and water resource planning in these fragile landscapes.

[1]  Guoqing Zhang,et al.  Lake-area mapping in the Tibetan Plateau: an evaluation of data and methods , 2017 .

[2]  J. Pekel,et al.  High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes , 2016, Nature.

[3]  Guoqing Zhang,et al.  Developing Daily Cloud-Free Snow Composite Products From MODIS Terra–Aqua and IMS for the Tibetan Plateau , 2016, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing.

[4]  J. Crétaux,et al.  Lake Volume Monitoring from Space , 2016, Surveys in Geophysics.

[5]  P. Krause,et al.  Differences in the water-balance components of four lakes in the southern-central Tibetan Plateau , 2016 .

[6]  S. Rupper,et al.  Response of closed basin lakes to interannual climate variability , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[7]  Mark A. Trigg,et al.  Development of a global ~90m water body map using multi-temporal Landsat images , 2015, Remote Sensing of Environment.

[8]  樊杰,et al.  青藏高原环境变化科学评估—过去、现在与未来 , 2015 .

[9]  Zhixiang Xiao,et al.  Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau? , 2015, Scientific Reports.

[10]  T. Bolch,et al.  Substantial glacier mass loss in the Tien Shan over the past 50 years , 2015 .

[11]  H. Xie,et al.  An inventory of glacial lakes in the Third Pole region and their changes in response to global warming , 2015 .

[12]  Wenke Sun,et al.  An increase in the rate of global mean sea level rise since 2010 , 2015 .

[13]  Xiaodong Liu,et al.  Distinct impacts of the Mongolian and Tibetan Plateaus on the evolution of the East Asian monsoon , 2015 .

[14]  L. Leung,et al.  Changes in Moisture Flux over the Tibetan Plateau during 1979–2011: Insights from a High-Resolution Simulation , 2015 .

[15]  B. Chao,et al.  Terrestrial water storage anomalies of Yangtze River Basin droughts observed by GRACE and connections with ENSO , 2015 .

[16]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Detecting Long-Term Trends in Precipitable Water over the Tibetan Plateau by Synthesis of Station and MODIS Observations* , 2015 .

[17]  Haihua Shen,et al.  Rapid loss of lakes on the Mongolian Plateau , 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[18]  T. Yao,et al.  Assessment of past, present and future environmental changes on the Tibetan Plateau , 2015 .

[19]  Li Xu,et al.  The second Chinese glacier inventory: data, methods and results , 2015 .

[20]  T. Yao,et al.  Characteristics of the Tibetan Plateau snow cover variations based on daily data during 1997–2011 , 2015, Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

[21]  Huadong Guo,et al.  Patterns and Potential Drivers of Dramatic Changes in Tibetan Lakes, 1972–2010 , 2014, PloS one.

[22]  C. Verpoorter,et al.  A global inventory of lakes based on high‐resolution satellite imagery , 2014 .

[23]  Hongjie Xie,et al.  Estimating surface temperature changes of lakes in the Tibetan Plateau using MODIS LST data , 2014 .

[24]  Hongjie Xie,et al.  Lakes’ state and abundance across the Tibetan Plateau , 2014 .

[25]  Bo Huang,et al.  Accelerated lake expansion on the Tibetan Plateau in the 2000s: Induced by glacial melting or other processes? , 2014 .

[26]  P. Jones,et al.  Updated high‐resolution grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3.10 Dataset , 2014 .

[27]  Craig A. Stow,et al.  Water Loss from the Great Lakes , 2014, Science.

[28]  Yanhong Gao,et al.  Changes in Moisture Flux over the Tibetan Plateau during 1979–2011 and Possible Mechanisms , 2014 .

[29]  T. Bolch,et al.  Glacier mass changes on the Tibetan Plateau 2003–2009 derived from ICESat laser altimetry measurements , 2014 .

[30]  Jun Qin,et al.  Recent climate changes over the Tibetan Plateau and their impacts on energy and water cycle: A review , 2014 .

[31]  W. Gan,et al.  Three‐dimensional velocity field of present‐day crustal motion of the Tibetan Plateau derived from GPS measurements , 2013 .

[32]  Bo Huang,et al.  Modeling and analysis of lake water storage changes on the Tibetan Plateau using multi-mission satellite data , 2013 .

[33]  Shi-chang Kang,et al.  Water balance observations reveal significant subsurface water seepage from Lake Nam Co, south-central Tibetan Plateau , 2013 .

[34]  Thierry Pellarin,et al.  Long term soil moisture mapping over the Tibetan Plateau using Special Sensor Microwave/Imager , 2013 .

[35]  H. Xie,et al.  Increased mass over the Tibetan Plateau: From lakes or glaciers? , 2013 .

[36]  M. R. van den Broeke,et al.  A Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009 , 2013, Science.

[37]  P. Webster,et al.  Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Niño/southern oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[38]  Yongwei Sheng,et al.  Coherent lake growth on the central Tibetan Plateau since the 1970s: Characterization and attribution , 2013 .

[39]  Jun Qin,et al.  Can aerosol loading explain the solar dimming over the Tibetan Plateau? , 2012 .

[40]  L. Thompson,et al.  Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings , 2012 .

[41]  Y. Arnaud,et al.  Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the Himalayas , 2012, Nature.

[42]  Y. Sheng,et al.  An automated scheme for glacial lake dynamics mapping using Landsat imagery and digital elevation models: a case study in the Himalayas , 2012 .

[43]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Enhanced warming over the global subtropical western boundary currents , 2012 .

[44]  Chen Ding-mei Response of Seasonal Frozen Soil to Climate Change on Tibet Region from 1961 to 2010 , 2012 .

[45]  Rüdiger Gerdes,et al.  Enhanced poleward moisture transport and amplified northern high-latitude wetting trend , 2012 .

[46]  Stephen F. Ackley,et al.  Monitoring lake level changes on the Tibetan Plateau using ICESat altimetry data (2003-2009) , 2011 .

[47]  Thomas Foken,et al.  Response of hydrological cycle to recent climate changes in the Tibetan Plateau , 2011 .

[48]  A. Cazenave,et al.  SOLS: A lake database to monitor in the Near Real Time water level and storage variations from remote sensing data , 2011 .

[49]  Weimin Ju,et al.  A half‐century of changes in China's lakes: Global warming or human influence? , 2010 .

[50]  M. Bierkens,et al.  Climate Change Will Affect the Asian Water Towers , 2010, Science.

[51]  Lin Zhao,et al.  Thermal state of permafrost and active layer in Central Asia during the international polar year , 2010 .

[52]  B. Wylie,et al.  Analysis of Dynamic Thresholds for the Normalized Difference Water Index , 2009 .

[53]  G. Weyhenmeyer,et al.  Lakes as sentinels of climate change , 2009, Limnology and oceanography.

[54]  Manfred F. Buchroithner,et al.  Identification of glacier motion and potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Mt. Everest region/Nepal using spaceborne imagery , 2008 .

[55]  J. Qiu China: The third pole , 2008, Nature.

[56]  Rui Jin,et al.  Cryospheric change in China , 2008 .

[57]  Yuehua Wu,et al.  Penalized Maximal t Test for Detecting Undocumented Mean Change in Climate Data Series , 2007 .

[58]  Hanqiu Xu Modification of normalised difference water index (NDWI) to enhance open water features in remotely sensed imagery , 2006 .

[59]  T. Barnett,et al.  Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions , 2005, Nature.

[60]  L. D. Hinzman,et al.  Disappearing Arctic Lakes , 2005, Science.

[61]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Measuring surface water from space , 2004 .

[62]  Andreas Kääb,et al.  Remote sensing based assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts: a case study in the Swiss Alps , 2002 .

[63]  S. K. McFeeters The use of the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) in the delineation of open water features , 1996 .

[64]  R. Bilham,et al.  Constraints on Himalayan deformation inferred from vertical velocity fields in Nepal and Tibet , 1994 .

[65]  C. G. Rapley,et al.  The response of lake levels and areas to climatic change , 1994 .

[66]  A. Pettitt A Non‐Parametric Approach to the Change‐Point Problem , 1979 .