Research into traffic models for the economic evaluation of private sector toll roads and tunnel proposals in New South Wales

Government policy in New South Wales has shifted in recent years to allow a greater private-sector participation in the construction and operation of toll roads and tunnels. Examples of proposals include the Sydney Harbour Tunnel (due for completion in 1992), The Bulahdelah Tollway, the F2 and F4 toll roads in metropolitan Sydney, and the Queanbeyan-South Coast tollway. Unisearch Ltd the University of New South Wales Research and Development company has given independent advice to both the private and public sectors and to community-based groups on all of the examples mentioned above. The objective of the paper is to describe the "research and development" aspects of the traffic models used to estimate future traffic assignments to the proposed facilities. Two case studies are included: a model for the temporal distribution of traffic demands over the Sydney Harbour Bridge and tunnel proposal; and a logit model for traffic assignment to a proposed tollway between Queanbeyan and the South Coast. The relationship between toll revenue and construction and operational costs is of crucial importance in determining financial viability.