Multi-Channel Singular Spectrum Analysis on Geocenter Motion and Its Precise Prediction

Geocenter is the center of the mass of the Earth system including the solid Earth, ocean, and atmosphere. The time-varying characteristics of geocenter motion (GCM) reflect the redistribution of the Earth’s mass and the interaction between solid Earth and mass loading. Multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) was introduced to analyze the GCM products determined from satellite laser ranging data released by the Center for Space Research through January 1993 to February 2017 for extracting the periods and the long-term trend of GCM. The results show that the GCM has obvious seasonal characteristics of the annual, semiannual, quasi-0.6-year, and quasi-1.5-year in the X, Y, and Z directions, the annual characteristics make great domination, and its amplitudes are 1.7, 2.8, and 4.4 mm, respectively. It also shows long-period terms of 6.09 years as well as the non-linear trends of 0.05, 0.04, and –0.10 mm/yr in the three directions, respectively. To obtain real-time GCM parameters, the MSSA method combining a linear model (LM) and autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) was applied to predict GCM for 2 years into the future. The precision of predictions made using the proposed model was evaluated by the root mean squared error (RMSE). The results show that the proposed method can effectively predict GCM parameters, and the prediction precision in the three directions is 1.53, 1.08, and 3.46 mm, respectively.

[1]  Sun Jialong.  Periodic Geocenter Motion Measured with SLR in 1993—2006 , 2009 .

[2]  Z. Altamimi,et al.  ITRF2014: A new release of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame modeling nonlinear station motions , 2016 .

[3]  R. Vautard,et al.  Singular spectrum analysis in nonlinear dynamics, with applications to paleoclimatic time series , 1989 .

[4]  Hossein Hassani,et al.  Singular Spectrum Analysis: Methodology and Comparison , 2021, Journal of Data Science.

[5]  M. K. Cheng,et al.  Geocenter variations caused by atmosphere, ocean and surface ground water , 1997 .

[6]  Yingyan Cheng,et al.  An enhanced singular spectrum analysis method for constructing nonsecular model of GPS site movement , 2016 .

[7]  M. Sacchi,et al.  Simultaneous seismic data denoising and reconstruction via multichannel singular spectrum analysis , 2011 .

[8]  M. Cheng,et al.  Deceleration in the Earth's oblateness , 2013 .

[9]  Z. Altamimi,et al.  On secular geocenter motion: The impact of climate changes , 2010 .

[10]  P. K. Seidelmann,et al.  The IAU 2000 Resolutions for Astrometry, Celestial Mechanics, and Metrology in the Relativistic Framework: Explanatory Supplement , 2003, astro-ph/0303376.

[11]  M. Pearlman,et al.  Laser geodetic satellites: a high-accuracy scientific tool , 2019, Journal of Geodesy.

[12]  A. Zhigljavsky,et al.  Analysis of time series structure , 2013 .

[13]  J. Ries,et al.  Reconciling Estimates of Annual Geocenter Motion from Space Geodesy , 2016 .

[14]  Michael B. Heflin,et al.  Simultaneous estimation of global present-day water transport and glacial isostatic adjustment , 2010 .

[15]  Dezhi Zhang,et al.  Analysis of 25 Years of Polar Motion Derived from the DORIS Space Geodetic Technique Using FFT and SSA Methods , 2020, Sensors.

[16]  Anny Cazenave,et al.  Geocentre motion from the DORIS space system and laser data to the Lageos satellites: comparison with surface loading data , 2000 .

[17]  Analysis on motion of Earth’s center of mass observed with CHAMP mission , 2008 .

[18]  C. Shum,et al.  A possible interrelation between Earth rotation and climatic variability at decadal time-scale , 2016 .

[19]  Z. Martinec,et al.  Contribution of glacial-isostatic adjustment to the geocenter motion , 2011 .

[20]  Matt A. King,et al.  Uncertainty in geocenter estimates in the context of ITRF2014 , 2017 .

[21]  M. Watkins,et al.  Observations of tidally coherent diurnal and semidiurnal variations in the geocenter , 1997 .

[22]  Jean-François Crétaux,et al.  Seasonal and interannual geocenter motion from SLR and DORIS measurements: Comparison with surface loading data , 2002 .

[23]  Wang Li,et al.  Long-term prediction of polar motion using a combined SSA and ARMA model , 2018, Journal of Geodesy.

[24]  S. P. Kuzin,et al.  Studies of the geocenter motion using 16-years DORIS data , 2010 .

[25]  N Wei.  Effects of surface loading and heterogeneous GPS network on Helmert transformation , 2016 .

[26]  Jinyun Guo,et al.  One hybrid model combining singular spectrum analysis and LS + ARMA for polar motion prediction , 2017 .

[27]  P. Berio,et al.  Geocentre motion measured with DORIS and SLR, and predicted by geophysical models , 2006 .

[28]  Hua Chen,et al.  GPS-derived geocenter motion from the IGS second reprocessing campaign , 2019, Earth, Planets and Space.

[29]  Zuheir Altamimi,et al.  A collinearity diagnosis of the GNSS geocenter determination , 2013, Journal of Geodesy.

[30]  R. Dach,et al.  Geocenter coordinates estimated from GNSS data as viewed by perturbation theory , 2013 .

[31]  W. Featherstone,et al.  Continental mass change from GRACE over 2002–2011 and its impact on sea level , 2012, Journal of Geodesy.

[32]  J. Wahr,et al.  Effect of melting glaciers on the Earth's rotation and gravitational field: 1965–1984 , 1992 .

[33]  Z. Altamimi,et al.  ITRF2008: an improved solution of the international terrestrial reference frame , 2011 .

[34]  Pavel Ditmar,et al.  Optimizing estimates of annual variations and trends in geocenter motion and J2 from a combination of GRACE data and geophysical models , 2016 .

[35]  Chunmei Zhao,et al.  Centimeter-level precise orbit determination for the HY-2A satellite using DORIS and SLR tracking data , 2017, Acta Geophysica.

[36]  Tianming Ma,et al.  The Estimation and Prediction of Geocenter Motion Based on GNSS/SLR Weekly Solutions , 2018 .

[37]  Shuanggen Jin,et al.  Uncertainties and effects on geocenter motion estimates from global GPS observations , 2014 .

[38]  G. Blewitt,et al.  A New Global Mode of Earth Deformation: Seasonal Cycle Detected , 2001, Science.

[39]  Z. Altamimi,et al.  Assessment of the accuracy of global geodetic satellite laser ranging observations and estimated impact on ITRF scale: estimation of systematic errors in LAGEOS observations 1993–2014 , 2016, Journal of Geodesy.

[40]  M. Cheng,et al.  Geocenter Variations from Analysis of SLR Data , 2013 .

[41]  M. Greff-Lefftz,et al.  Fluid core dynamics and degree-one deformations: Slichter mode and geocenter motions , 2007 .

[42]  Jens Schröter,et al.  Global surface mass from a new combination of GRACE, modelled OBP and reprocessed GPS data , 2012 .

[43]  Peter J. Clarke,et al.  Inversion of Earth's changing shape to weigh sea level in static equilibrium with surface mass redistribution , 2003 .

[44]  V. Brumberg,et al.  Relativistic reference systems and motion of test bodies in the vicinity of the earth , 1989 .

[45]  G. Blewitt.  Self‐consistency in reference frames, geocenter definition, and surface loading of the solid Earth , 2003 .

[46]  J. Ray,et al.  Geocenter motion and its geodetic and geophysical implications , 2012 .