Survival Analysis of Patients with High-Grade Gliomas Based on Data Mining of Imaging Variables

The authors compared survival prediction using machine-learning data-mining techniques versus traditional histopathologic analysis in a group of 74 tumors. They looked at 55 imaging variables, extracting the most important ones and comparing these with standard histology. The most important variables were: extent of resection, mass effects, volume of enhancing tumor, maximum T2 intensity, and mean trace intensity in non-enhancing or edematous surrounding areas. The accuracy of the data-mining method was 85% and based on Kaplan-Meier curves this predicted survival better than histology. BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The prediction of prognosis in HGGs is poor in the majority of patients. Our aim was to test whether multivariate prediction models constructed by machine-learning methods provide a more accurate predictor of prognosis in HGGs than histopathologic classification. The prediction of survival was based on DTI and rCBV measurements as an adjunct to conventional imaging. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The relationship of survival to 55 variables, including clinical parameters (age, sex), categoric or continuous tumor descriptors (eg, tumor location, extent of resection, multifocality, edema), and imaging characteristics in ROIs, was analyzed in a multivariate fashion by using data-mining techniques. A variable selection method was applied to identify the overall most important variables. The analysis was performed on 74 HGGs (18 anaplastic gliomas WHO grades III/IV and 56 GBMs or gliosarcomas WHO grades IV/IV). RESULTS: Five variables were identified as the most significant, including the extent of resection, mass effect, volume of enhancing tumor, maximum B0 intensity, and mean trace intensity in the nonenhancing/edematous region. These variables were used to construct a prediction model based on a J48 classification tree. The average classification accuracy, assessed by cross-validation, was 85.1%. Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that the constructed prediction model classified malignant gliomas in a manner that better correlates with clinical outcome than standard histopathology. CONCLUSIONS: Prediction models based on data-mining algorithms can provide a more accurate predictor of prognosis in malignant gliomas than histopathologic classification alone.