The application of decision theory to sustainable management of an upland Scottish estate

Financial, social and ecological cost and benefit criteria were used to examine the sustainability of land-use options on an upland Scottish estate. The costs and benefits of alternative land uses were examined using a psychometric modelling technique based on decision-conferencing, using an expert group of people. Three decision models based respectively on financial, social and ecological criteria were developed, compared and then integrated. The management options that emerged from the integrated model as best compromises appeared to be reasonable and feasible within the framework of facts and projections available to the group. The effects of different future scenarios, such as changes in fiscal policy, were also examined using the models. A three-dimensional model constructed from a principal components analysis of the input data produced axes that seemed to reflect certain socio-political archetypes.