Hydrodynamic system behaviour: its analysis and implications for flood risk management

Knowledge on the different components of flood risk has much improved over the last decades, but research which fully takes into account not only the interactions between those components but also between different areas in a catchment or delta is still rare. Integrated analyses based on a complete system’s approach at sufficiently large scale will improve our understanding of how flood risk systems with flood protection infrastructure in place behave under extreme conditions, it may help to develop sensible long-term strategies, and allows us to better prepare for flood events of all magnitudes. To illustrate the relevance of a hydrodynamic system’s approach for flood risk management we analyse the effect of defence breaches on flood risks elsewhere along the lower Rhine River and discuss the use of this knowledge for flood risk management.

[1]  K. M. de Bruijn,et al.  Importance sampling for efficient modelling of hydraulic loads in the Rhine–Meuse delta , 2015, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment.

[2]  R. B. Jongejan,et al.  Quantifying Flood Risks in the Netherlands , 2015, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[3]  K. M. de Bruijn,et al.  An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risk in the Netherlands , 2014 .

[4]  Sebastiaan N. Jonkman,et al.  Influence of load interdependencies of flood defences on probabilities and risks at the Bovenrijn/IJssel area, The Netherlands , 2014 .

[5]  M. Amadio Flood Risk Assessment in the Po river basin under a Climate Change scenario , 2012 .

[6]  Bruno Merz,et al.  Analysis of a detention basin impact on dike failure probabilities and flood risk for a channel-dike-floodplain system along the river Elbe, Germany , 2012 .

[7]  L. Morton,et al.  The effects of 2011 Ohio and Mississippi river valley flooding on Cairo, Illinois, area , 2012, Journal of Soil and Water Conservation.

[8]  Bruno Merz,et al.  A new methodology for flood hazard assessment considering dike breaches , 2010 .

[9]  Bruno Merz,et al.  Influence of dike breaches on flood frequency estimation , 2009, Comput. Geosci..

[10]  A.C.W.M. Vrouwenvelder,et al.  Assessment of flood risk accounting for river system behaviour , 2007 .

[11]  Jim W. Hall,et al.  National-scale Assessment of Current and Future Flood Risk in England and Wales , 2005 .

[12]  B. Merz,et al.  Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty , 2003 .

[13]  Risk analysis for flood protection systems , 2010 .