From Ecology to Finance (and Back?): A Review on Entropy-Based Null Models for the Analysis of Bipartite Networks

Bipartite networks provide an insightful representation of many systems, ranging from mutualistic networks of species interactions to investment networks in finance. The analyses of their topological structures have revealed the ubiquitous presence of properties which seem to characterize many—apparently different—systems. Nestedness, for example, has been observed in biological plant-pollinator as well as in country-product exportation networks. Due to the interdisciplinary character of complex networks, tools developed in one field, for example ecology, can greatly enrich other areas of research, such as economy and finance, and vice versa. With this in mind, we briefly review several entropy-based bipartite null models that have been recently proposed and discuss their application to real-world systems. The focus on these models is motivated by the fact that they show three very desirable features: analytical character, general applicability, and versatility. In this respect, entropy-based methods have been proven to perform satisfactorily both in providing benchmarks for testing evidence-based null hypotheses and in reconstructing unknown network configurations from partial information. Furthermore, entropy-based models have been successfully employed to analyze ecological as well as economic systems. As an example, the application of entropy-based null models has detected early-warning signals, both in economic and financial systems, of the 2007–2008 world crisis. Moreover, they have revealed a statistically-significant export specialization phenomenon of country export baskets in international trade, a result that seems to reconcile Ricardo’s hypothesis in classical economics with recent findings on the (empirical) diversification industrial production at the national level. Finally, these null models have shown that the information contained in the nestedness is already accounted for by the degree sequence of the corresponding graphs.

[1]  H. Stanley,et al.  Dynamical Macroprudential Stress Testing Using Network Theory , 2014 .

[2]  Gilberto Artioli,et al.  Long-distance connections in the Copper Age: New evidence from the Alpine Iceman’s copper axe , 2017, PloS one.

[3]  Andrea Zaccaria,et al.  The complex dynamics of products and its asymptotic properties , 2017, PloS one.

[4]  Colin Fontaine,et al.  Stability of Ecological Communities and the Architecture of Mutualistic and Trophic Networks , 2010, Science.

[5]  Marti J. Anderson,et al.  Species abundance distributions: moving beyond single prediction theories to integration within an ecological framework. , 2007, Ecology letters.

[6]  D. Ricardo On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation , 1891 .

[7]  O. Cadot,et al.  Export Diversification: What's behind the Hump? , 2007, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[8]  F. Chung,et al.  Connected Components in Random Graphs with Given Expected Degree Sequences , 2002 .

[9]  Guido Caldarelli,et al.  A Network Analysis of Countries’ Export Flows: Firm Grounds for the Building Blocks of the Economy , 2011, PloS one.

[10]  Neal M Williams,et al.  Complex responses within a desert bee guild (Hymenoptera: Apiformes) to urban habitat fragmentation. , 2006, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[11]  P. Glasserman,et al.  Contagion in Financial Networks , 2015 .

[12]  Carsten F. Dormann,et al.  Indices, Graphs and Null Models: Analyzing Bipartite Ecological Networks , 2009 .

[13]  J. Larson,et al.  An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations , 2015 .

[14]  Michael E. Gilpin,et al.  Examination of the “null” model of connor and simberloff for species co-occurrences on Islands , 2004, Oecologia.

[15]  L. Pietronero,et al.  How the Taxonomy of Products Drives the Economic Development of Countries , 2014, PloS one.

[16]  Johannes Buchner,et al.  The Hsp90 machinery facilitates the transport of diphtheria toxin into human cells , 2017, Scientific Reports.

[17]  Mercedes Pascual,et al.  The multilayer nature of ecological networks , 2015, Nature Ecology &Evolution.

[18]  Claudia Bolognesi,et al.  Urinary Benzene Biomarkers and DNA Methylation in Bulgarian Petrochemical Workers: Study Findings and Comparison of Linear and Beta Regression Models , 2012, PloS one.

[19]  Guido Caldarelli,et al.  Universal scaling relations in food webs , 2003, Nature.

[20]  L. Stone,et al.  The checkerboard score and species distributions , 1990, Oecologia.

[21]  Paul Erdös,et al.  On random graphs, I , 1959 .

[22]  Lenore Fahrig,et al.  Relative Effects of Habitat Loss and Fragmentation on Population Extinction , 1997 .

[23]  G. Caldarelli,et al.  DebtRank: Too Central to Fail? Financial Networks, the FED and Systemic Risk , 2012, Scientific Reports.

[24]  Emanuele Pugliese,et al.  On the convergence of the Fitness-Complexity algorithm , 2014, 1410.0249.

[25]  Mihyun Kang,et al.  The Critical Phase for Random Graphs with a Given Degree Sequence , 2008, Combinatorics, Probability and Computing.

[26]  J. Harte Maximum Entropy and Ecology: A Theory of Abundance, Distribution, and Energetics , 2011 .

[27]  J. Pitchford,et al.  Disentangling nestedness from models of ecological complexity , 2012, Nature.

[28]  E. Jaynes Information Theory and Statistical Mechanics , 1957 .

[29]  Giorgio Fagiolo,et al.  World-trade web: topological properties, dynamics, and evolution. , 2008, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[30]  Y. Moreno,et al.  Breaking the spell of nestedness , 2017, bioRxiv.

[31]  Guido Caldarelli,et al.  Measuring the Intangibles: A Metrics for the Economic Complexity of Countries and Products , 2013, PloS one.

[32]  Elisa Thébault,et al.  Identifying compartments in presence–absence matrices and bipartite networks: insights into modularity measures , 2013 .

[33]  Andrea Gabrielli,et al.  Randomizing bipartite networks: the case of the World Trade Web , 2015, Scientific Reports.

[34]  Roger Guimerà,et al.  Module identification in bipartite and directed networks. , 2007, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[35]  R. Cont,et al.  FIRE SALES FORENSICS: MEASURING ENDOGENOUS RISK , 2016 .

[36]  M. Newman,et al.  Scientific collaboration networks. II. Shortest paths, weighted networks, and centrality. , 2001, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[37]  Domenico Di Gangi,et al.  Assessing Systemic Risk Due to Fire Sales Spillover Through Maximum Entropy Network Reconstruction , 2015, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

[38]  Josep Fortuny,et al.  Finite Element Analysis of the Cingulata Jaw: An Ecomorphological Approach to Armadillo’s Diets , 2015, PloS one.

[39]  Daniel Simberloff,et al.  The Assembly of Species Communities: Chance or Competition? , 1979 .

[40]  Giulio Cimini,et al.  Statistically validated network of portfolio overlaps and systemic risk , 2016, Scientific Reports.

[41]  J. Lintner THE VALUATION OF RISK ASSETS AND THE SELECTION OF RISKY INVESTMENTS IN STOCK PORTFOLIOS AND CAPITAL BUDGETS , 1965 .

[42]  Cristopher Moore,et al.  Stability Analysis of Financial Contagion Due to Overlapping Portfolios , 2012, ArXiv.

[43]  R. Folk,et al.  Poisson‐Voronoi核形成と成長変形における分域構造の時間発展:一次元と三次元の結果 , 2008 .

[44]  B. Balassa Trade Liberalisation and “Revealed” Comparative Advantage , 1965 .

[45]  Brian Uzzi,et al.  Common Organizing Mechanisms in Ecological and Socio-economic Networks , 2011, ArXiv.

[46]  Richard J. Williams,et al.  Simple MaxEnt models explain food web degree distributions , 2010, Theoretical Ecology.

[47]  Santo Fortunato,et al.  Community detection in graphs , 2009, ArXiv.

[48]  Yamir Moreno,et al.  Emergence of consensus as a modular-to-nested transition in communication dynamics , 2015, Scientific Reports.

[49]  Tapio Luttinen,et al.  Jamming transitions induced by an attraction in pedestrian flow. , 2017, Physical review. E.

[50]  David Thesmar,et al.  Vulnerable Banks , 2011 .

[51]  Guido Caldarelli,et al.  Grand canonical validation of the bipartite international trade network. , 2017, Physical review. E.

[52]  R. Cont,et al.  FIRE SALES FORENSICS: MEASURING ENDOGENOUS RISK , 2012 .

[53]  Robert M. May,et al.  Size and complexity in model financial systems , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[54]  Fabio Saracco,et al.  Detecting early signs of the 2007–2008 crisis in the world trade , 2015, Scientific Reports.

[55]  G. Caldarelli,et al.  Networks of equities in financial markets , 2004 .

[56]  Chun-Hsi Huang,et al.  Biological network motif detection: principles and practice , 2012, Briefings Bioinform..

[57]  Giulio Cimini,et al.  Enhanced capital-asset pricing model for bipartite financial networks reconstruction , 2017 .

[58]  Guido Caldarelli,et al.  Pathways towards instability in financial networks , 2016 .

[59]  Tamer Kahveci,et al.  Motifs in the assembly of food web networks , 2015 .

[60]  Samuel Johnson,et al.  Factors Determining Nestedness in Complex Networks , 2013, PloS one.

[61]  M. Cropper,et al.  Sulfur Dioxide Control by Electric Utilities: What Are the Gains from Trade? , 1998, Journal of Political Economy.

[62]  Jordi Bascompte,et al.  The architecture of mutualistic networks minimizes competition and increases biodiversity , 2009, Nature.

[63]  Oren Shoval,et al.  SnapShot: Network Motifs , 2010, Cell.

[64]  Andrei Shleifer,et al.  Fire Sales in Finance and Macroeconomics , 2010 .

[65]  John M. Marzluff,et al.  Importance of Reserve Size and Landscape Context to Urban Bird Conservation , 2004 .

[66]  Giorgio Fagiolo,et al.  Multinetwork of international trade: a commodity-specific analysis. , 2009, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[67]  U. Alon Network motifs: theory and experimental approaches , 2007, Nature Reviews Genetics.

[68]  Richard J. Williams Biology, Methodology or Chance? The Degree Distributions of Bipartite Ecological Networks , 2011, PloS one.

[69]  Guido Caldarelli,et al.  A New Metrics for Countries' Fitness and Products' Complexity , 2012, Scientific Reports.

[70]  Marián Boguñá,et al.  Topology of the world trade web. , 2003, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[71]  J. Mossin EQUILIBRIUM IN A CAPITAL ASSET MARKET , 1966 .

[72]  Si Tang,et al.  Stability criteria for complex ecosystems , 2011, Nature.

[73]  Stefano Allesina,et al.  The ghost of nestedness in ecological networks , 2013, Nature Communications.

[74]  Giorgio Fagiolo,et al.  Enhanced reconstruction of weighted networks from strengths and degrees , 2013, 1307.2104.

[75]  Alan Roberts,et al.  Island-sharing by archipelago species , 2004, Oecologia.

[76]  Gang Zhang,et al.  Quantitative assessment on the cloning efficiencies of lentiviral transfer vectors with a unique clone site , 2012, Scientific Reports.

[77]  S. Shen-Orr,et al.  Network motifs: simple building blocks of complex networks. , 2002, Science.

[78]  Diego Garlaschelli,et al.  Fitness-dependent topological properties of the world trade web. , 2004, Physical review letters.

[79]  M E J Newman,et al.  Finding and evaluating community structure in networks. , 2003, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[80]  Kay Giesecke,et al.  Assessing the Systemic Implications of Financial Linkages , 2009 .

[81]  Yili Hong,et al.  On computing the distribution function for the Poisson binomial distribution , 2013, Comput. Stat. Data Anal..

[82]  Larry Eisenberg,et al.  Systemic Risk in Financial Networks , 1999, Manag. Sci..

[83]  Yi-Cheng Zhang,et al.  Bipartite network projection and personal recommendation. , 2007, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[84]  M. Newman,et al.  Statistical mechanics of networks. , 2004, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[85]  Giulio Cimini,et al.  Unfolding the innovation system for the development of countries: coevolution of Science, Technology and Production , 2017, Scientific Reports.

[86]  Andreas Krause,et al.  Interbank Lending and the Spread of Bank Failures: A Network Model of Systemic Risk , 2012 .

[87]  G. Fagiolo,et al.  Modeling the International-Trade Network: a gravity approach , 2011, 1112.2867.

[88]  M. Scheffer,et al.  Complexity theory and financial regulation , 2016, Science.

[89]  A. Maritan,et al.  Emergence of structural and dynamical properties of ecological mutualistic networks , 2014, bioRxiv.

[90]  César A. Hidalgo,et al.  The building blocks of economic complexity , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[91]  Andrea Zaccaria,et al.  How log-normal is your country? An analysis of the statistical distribution of the exported volumes of products , 2016 .

[92]  César A. Hidalgo,et al.  The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations , 2007, Science.

[93]  Luciano Pietronero,et al.  The Heterogeneous Dynamics of Economic Complexity , 2015, PloS one.

[94]  Alessandro Chessa,et al.  World Input-Output Network , 2014, PloS one.

[95]  Javier Galeano,et al.  Bipartite networks provide new insights on international trade markets , 2012, Networks Heterog. Media.

[96]  Markus K. Brunnermeier Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08 , 2008 .

[97]  Wirt Atmar,et al.  The measure of order and disorder in the distribution of species in fragmented habitat , 1993, Oecologia.

[98]  Rony Zachariah,et al.  One Size Fits All? Standardised Provision of Care for Survivors of Sexual Violence in Conflict and Post-Conflict Areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo , 2014, PloS one.

[99]  S. Nagalingam,et al.  Building resilience in SMEs of perishable product supply chains: enablers, barriers and risks , 2017 .

[100]  Siddhartha R. Jonnalagadda,et al.  Scientific collaboration networks using biomedical text. , 2014, Methods in molecular biology.

[101]  D. Garlaschelli,et al.  Maximum likelihood: extracting unbiased information from complex networks. , 2006, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[102]  Werner Ulrich,et al.  A consistent metric for nestedness analysis in ecological systems: reconciling concept and measurement , 2008 .

[103]  Andrea Gabrielli,et al.  Inferring monopartite projections of bipartite networks: an entropy-based approach , 2016 .

[104]  Guido Caldarelli,et al.  Population Dynamics on Complex Food Webs , 2010, Adv. Complex Syst..

[105]  Charles C. Elton Animal Ecology , 1927, Nature.

[106]  A. Maritan,et al.  Statistical mechanics of ecological systems: Neutral theory and beyond , 2015, 1506.01721.

[107]  César A. Hidalgo,et al.  The network structure of economic output , 2011, 1101.1707.

[108]  Prasanna Gai,et al.  Contagion in financial networks , 2010, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[109]  Annabelle Mourougane,et al.  The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries , 2012 .

[110]  Michael E. Gilpin,et al.  Factors contributing to non-randomness in species Co-occurrences on Islands , 2004, Oecologia.

[111]  F. Lillo,et al.  Topology of correlation-based minimal spanning trees in real and model markets. , 2002, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.