Impacts of climate change on critical loads and their exceedances in Europe

Abstract As part of a project on the integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (AIR-CLIM) this paper reports the impacts of climate change on the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to the deposition of sulfur and nitrogen. This sensitivity is characterized by critical loads of acidity and nutrient nitrogen, which have been widely used for setting emission reduction targets in Europe. Using a consistent database on European soils and forests, it is shown that higher temperatures, changed precipitation patterns and modified net primary production (NPP) generally increase critical loads, although decreases are observed in mountainous and arid regions. Comparing critical loads with the deposition of sulfur and nitrogen, it is shown that the exceedances of the critical loads are declining under all eight scenarios developed within AIR-CLIM, although exceedances of critical loads of nutrient nitrogen remain substantial, even under the most stringent scenario. A sensitivity study of some key parameters corroborates the conclusion that research should focus on the effects of nitrogen in the environment, especially under conditions of climate change, whereas policies should concentrate on further reductions of nitrogen emissions.

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