UNEXAMPLED EVENTS, RESILIENCE, AND PRA

Why isn't it loaded? Are you afraid of shooting yourself?” "Of course not. These weapons don't go off accidentally. You have to do five things in a row before they'll fire, and an accident can seldom count higher than three ... which is a mystery of probability that my intuition tells me is rooted at the very base of physics. No, it's never loaded because I am a pacifist.” -Field Marshall Strassnitzky of the First Hussars of the Belvedere during WW I [1]

[1]  S. Gould.  The Structure of Evolutionary Theory , 2002 .

[2]  S. Kaplan,et al.  On The Quantitative Definition of Risk , 1981 .

[3]  Mark Helprin.  A Soldier of the Great War , 1991 .

[4]  H. Hecht,et al.  Rare conditions and their effect on software failures , 1994, Proceedings of Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS).