The prediction of in-patient length of stay for acute psychiatric admissions

Many factors are known to influence length of stay on psychiatric wards. Korner returns were used to ascertain length of stay for all psychiatric admissions for patients aged 16-64 years to acute wards in North Staffordshire 1987-1993. Predictor variables were derived from Korner returns or obtained from the 1991 Census data. Fitting a Cox‘s regression model showed that females, older patients, those with psychotic diagnoses, elective admissions, weekday admissions and admissions from relatively affluent areas had longer lengths of stay. The study demonstrates that survival techniques can be used to model length of stay on acute psychiatric wards. The predictor variables used in the study are readily available and the derived models may have value in service planning, audit and resource allocation and may be relevant to individual patient management.

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