퍼지근사추론을 이용한 유료도로의 적용요금 산정

For a private toll road project, deciding optimal toll is an important element of economic analysis for the project and a challengeable work. In this study, the optimal toll of a private toll bridge, Geoga Bridge which connects Geoje Island of Gyeongnam Province and Gaduk Island of Busan was estimated using Stated Preference (SP) data, The SP data were collected by interviewing the passenger car drivers travelling on the National Road 14. They are latent users of the bridge. A fuzzy approximate reasoning model to estimate the optimal tall was built using the SP data. For the input variable of the model, the saved travel time and toll level were employed and the diversion rate to the bridge was employed for the output variable. The diversion rates for each toll level and saved travel time were estimated and the toll level which had maximized the tell revenue was decided as optimal toll. The optimal roll was tested by comparing with the average pay rate of passenger car drivers. Since the optimal toll for passenger cars at one hour saving, the 6,250 won is about 50% of the average pay rate of passenger car drivers, the toll was evaluated not to be high. The technique employed in this study may be used for the estimation of the optimal tolls for other kinds of vehicles.