Quantitative assessment of industrial VOC emissions in China: Historical trend, spatial distribution, uncertainties, and projection

Abstract The temporal trends of industrial volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions was comprehensively summarized for the 2011 to 2013 period, and the projections for 2020 to 2050 for China were set. The results demonstrate that industrial VOC emissions in China increased from 15.3 Tg in 2011 to 29.4 Tg in 2013 at an annual average growth rate of 38.3%. Guangdong (3.45 Tg), Shandong (2.85 Tg), and Jiangsu (2.62 Tg) were the three largest contributors collectively accounting for 30.4% of the national total emissions in 2013. The top three average industrial VOC emissions per square kilometer were Shanghai (247.2 ton/km2), Tianjin (62.8 ton/km2), and Beijing (38.4 ton/km2), which were 12–80 times of the average level in China. The data from the inventory indicate that the use of VOC-containing products, as well as the production and use of VOCs as raw materials, as well as for storage and transportation contributed 75.4%, 10.3%, 9.1%, and 5.2% of the total emissions, respectively. ArcGIS was used to display the remarkable spatial distribution variation by allocating the emission into 1 km × 1 km grid cells with a population as surrogate indexes. Combined with future economic development and population change, as well as implementation of policy and upgrade of control technologies, three scenarios (scenarios A, B, and C) were set to project industrial VOC emissions for the years 2020, 2030, and 2050, which present the industrial VOC emissions in different scenarios and the potential of reducing emissions. Finally, the result shows that the collaborative control policies considerably influenced industrial VOC emissions.