Understanding Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Land Use/Land Cover Change under Urbanization in Wuhan, China, 2000-2019

Exploring land use structure and dynamics is critical for urban planning and management. This study attempts to understand the Wuhan development mode since the beginning of the 21st century by profoundly investigating the spatio-temporal patterns of land use/land cover (LULC) change under urbanization in Wuhan, China, from 2000 to 2019, based on continuous time series mapping using Landsat observations with a support vector machine. The results indicated rapid urbanization, with large LULC changes triggered. The built-up area increased by 982.66 km2 (228%) at the expense of a reduction of 717.14 km2 (12%) for cropland, which threatens food security to some degree. In addition, the natural habitat shrank to some extent, with reductions of 182.52 km2, 23.92 km2 and 64.95 km2 for water, forest and grassland, respectively. Generally, Wuhan experienced a typical urbanization course that first sped up, then slowed down and then accelerated again, with an obvious internal imbalance between the 13 administrative districts. Hanyang, Hongshan and Dongxihu specifically presented more significant land dynamicity, with Hanyang being the active center. Over the past 19 years, Wuhan mainly developed toward the east and south, with the urban gravity center transferred from the northwest to the southeast of Jiang’an district. Lastly, based on the predicted land allocation of Wuhan in 2029 by the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, the future landscape dynamic pattern was further explored, and the result shows a rise in the northern suburbs, which provides meaningful guidance for urban planners and managers to promote urban sustainability.