An exploratory integrated model to assess management of lake eutrophication

Ecosystem management requires the explicit treatment of interactions between humans and ecosystems. An exploratory model for integrating social and ecological dynamics was introduced to study ecosystem management strategies. This paper focuses on the management of lake eutrophication. The model was developed to include the dynamics of the lake, the behaviour of agents using phosphorus for agricultural purposes, and the interactions between ecosystem and farmers. Analyses with the model showed that the dominating type of cognitive processing was a relevant factor in the response to uncertainty and policy measures. A higher target level for returns on the use of phosphorus was found to lead to a more intensive use of phosphorus and to higher levels of phosphorus in the lake. Simulated farmers used phosphorus more intensively in situations with high natural variability. A tax on phosphorus had little effect on the behaviour of the farmers when they felt uncertain and had low target levels for returns. © 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

[1]  C. Vlek,et al.  Consumats in a commons dilemma Testing the behavioural rules of simulated consumers Centre for Environmental and Traffic Psychology , 2022 .

[2]  Yaman Barlas,et al.  Philosophical roots of model validation: Two paradigms , 1990 .

[3]  George B. Kleindorfer,et al.  Validation in Simulation: Various Positions in the Philosophy of Science , 1998 .

[4]  James H. Brown,et al.  The Report of the Ecological Society of America Committee on the Scientific Basis for Ecosystem Management , 1996 .

[5]  Wander Jager,et al.  Consumats in a common dilemma. Testing the behavioural rules of simulated consumers , 1999 .

[6]  Graham Loomes,et al.  Probabilities vs Money: A Test of some Fundamental Assumptions About Rational Decision Making , 1998 .

[7]  Robert G. Sargent.  Validation of simulation models , 1979, WSC '79.

[8]  Marco A. Janssen.  Modelling Global Change: the Art of Integrated Assessment Modelling , 1998 .

[9]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Impact of dissolved organic carbon, phosphorus, and grazing on phytoplankton biomass and production in experimental lakes , 1998 .

[10]  H. Simon.  The Sciences of the Artificial, (Third edition) , 1997 .

[11]  D. Hine,et al.  Individual Restraint and Group Efficiency in Commons Dilemmas: The Effects of Two Types of Environmental Uncertainty1 , 1996 .

[12]  Shlomo Maital.  Applied behavioural economics , 1988 .

[13]  R. E. Grumbine.  What Is Ecosystem Management , 1994 .

[14]  Val H. Smith,et al.  Cultural Eutrophication of Inland, Estuarine, and Coastal Waters , 1998 .

[15]  Stephen R. Carpenter,et al.  Management of eutrophication for lakes subject to potentially irreversible change , 1999 .

[16]  Robin R. Vallacher,et al.  Dynamical Systems in Social Psychology , 1994 .

[17]  Stephen R. Carpenter,et al.  Ecological and Social Dynamics in Simple Models of Ecosystem Management , 1999 .

[18]  Andrzej Nowak,et al.  Computer modeling of social processes , 1998 .

[19]  E. W. Adams,et al.  Models of Man, Social and Rational: Mathematical Essays on Rational Human Behavior in a Social Setting , 1962 .

[20]  S. Carpenter,et al.  ECONOMIC VALUATION OF FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN THE UNITED STATES: 1971-1997 , 1999 .

[21]  C. Badcock,et al.  Simulating Societies: The Computer Simulation of Social Phenomena , 1995 .

[22]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Managing the Resilience of Lakes: A Multi-agent Modeling Approach , 1999 .

[23]  Stephen R. Carpenter,et al.  Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, 680 N. Park St., Madison, Wisconsin 53717 , 1998 .

[24]  Arjaan Wit,et al.  Public good provision under environmental and social uncertainty , 1998 .

[25]  R. E. Grumbine,et al.  Reflections on “What is Ecosystem Management?” , 1997 .

[26]  David M. Messick,et al.  Framing and communication effects on group members''responses to environmental and social uncertaint , 1993 .

[27]  Herbert A. Simon,et al.  The Sciences of the Artificial , 1970 .

[28]  N. Gilbert,et al.  Artificial Societies: The Computer Simulation of Social Life , 1995 .

[29]  T. Derting,et al.  Ecology: A Bridge between Science and Society , 1998 .

[30]  C. S. Holling.  Cross-Scale Morphology, Geometry, and Dynamics of Ecosystems , 1992 .

[31]  R. Hegselmann,et al.  Simulating Social Phenomena , 1997 .

[32]  Marco A. Janssen,et al.  Global Modelling: Managing Uncertainty Complexity and Incomplete Information , 1999 .

[33]  H. Gintis.  Beyond Homo economicus: evidence from experimental economics , 2000 .