Efficient uncertainty analysis of a complex multidisciplinary simulation model

The merit of a simulation model can only be assessed if the uncertainty in the simulation output is quantified. Knowledge on the uncertainty of simulation results helps the engineer/designer to decide whether the simulation model is suited for the goal that is pursued. Uncertainty analysis of complex multidisciplinary models is a laborious task. Du and Chen1 presented a method to increase the efficiency of the time consuming uncertainty analysis procedure. In this paper their uncertainty analysis method is applied to the Ship Mobility Model and compared with another uncertainty analysis method as applied by Schulten.7 The end results in terms of output uncertainty are comparable and small differences are explained. In terms of efficiency the Du and Chen method is found to be four times faster than the other method.