3.2.3 Modelling Uncertainty in Integrated Models

One of the main aims of modelling is to ensure that customer requirements (stated in terms of property value constraints) will be met with a suitably high level of confidence. This paper introduces work ongoing jointly within BAE SYSTEMS and the University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne in the UK which, in part, introduces processes and techniques to enable this aim to be realised. Part of this work involves the creation of a modelling framework to represent property flow within an integrated modelling hierarchy to aid model and property traceability and to determine and propagate both subjective and quantitative model dependability (confidence we have in the output from models). The aim of the joint research is, in part, to determine the confidence we have in the values of the top level properties, to determine the critical lower level properties and to ease trade-off studies.